Oil prices break above 106—can $BTC still hold up?
Last night, another incident in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was hit and shut down. The volume of 7 million barrels per day simply went to zero, and loading at Yanbu port also stopped. WTI surged above $106, a four-month high. Some spot prices are already being quoted at $130 per barrel.
The CBO bill is out too: the campaign against Iran has already burned $38.1 billion, and every month it still costs another $2.0–$3.0 billion. Missile inventory has been depleted by two-thirds. Where does this money ultimately go? It all turns into inflation—core PCE is expected to be lifted by 0.3–0.5 percentage points.
The chain is straightforward: oil prices → inflation → interest rates. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury has hit the highest level since 2007. Tomorrow’s Fed interest-rate decision in Washington is the global focus; markets have already taken two cuts on equities.
My take: in the short term, risk assets will keep swinging—$BTC can’t dodge it. But every dollar burned by the war is fiat money being devalued. In the medium term, it’s essentially handing $BTC ’s inflation-hedge narrative more cuts. Keep your hands steady; wait for the decision to land before moving.
Hold the physicals—don’t get carried away.
#比特币 #以太坊 #宏观经济 #中东局势 #Federal Reserve
NFA DYOR
Last night, another incident in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was hit and shut down. The volume of 7 million barrels per day simply went to zero, and loading at Yanbu port also stopped. WTI surged above $106, a four-month high. Some spot prices are already being quoted at $130 per barrel.
The CBO bill is out too: the campaign against Iran has already burned $38.1 billion, and every month it still costs another $2.0–$3.0 billion. Missile inventory has been depleted by two-thirds. Where does this money ultimately go? It all turns into inflation—core PCE is expected to be lifted by 0.3–0.5 percentage points.
The chain is straightforward: oil prices → inflation → interest rates. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury has hit the highest level since 2007. Tomorrow’s Fed interest-rate decision in Washington is the global focus; markets have already taken two cuts on equities.
My take: in the short term, risk assets will keep swinging—$BTC can’t dodge it. But every dollar burned by the war is fiat money being devalued. In the medium term, it’s essentially handing $BTC ’s inflation-hedge narrative more cuts. Keep your hands steady; wait for the decision to land before moving.
Hold the physicals—don’t get carried away.
#比特币 #以太坊 #宏观经济 #中东局势 #Federal Reserve
NFA DYOR