📉 Bitcoin Breaks Below $76,000: Bill Rejected + A Double Blow on the Eve of a Rate Hike—Tonight, the $75,000 Line of Life or Death Will Be Revealed
On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin fell below $76,000. During the session, it briefly dipped to $74,910, the lowest level since September. In the past 24 hours, it dropped more than 4%; Ethereum slipped below $2,400; XRP crashed more than 10%. Across the entire market, nearly 120,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of about $670 million—of which long positions accounted for $570 million.
The downside news is twofold:
First, the U.S. Senate rejected the “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” by a procedural vote of 50 to 49. That is 10 votes short of the 60 required for passage. The Democrats collectively opposed it citing Trump’s crypto-related conflict of interest. The “regulatory clarity” outcome that relied on years of lobbying money—amounting to billions of dollars—has fallen through, and with less than two months until the midterm elections, hopes of restarting this within the year are slim.
Second, on the eve of the Fed decision, the probability of a rate hike is over 92%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury ended at 5.005%, the highest since 2007. Oil prices rose again, stoking inflation concerns, putting pressure on non-yielding assets.
Crypto-related stocks also tumbled in tandem: Circle fell more than 11%, and Coinbase dropped more than 10%. But on-chain, sentiment isn’t entirely bearish: stablecoin readiness capital remains at a high of $310 billion, and a large whale increased its holdings by 60,000 BTC in August.
My take: The Fed’s decision taking effect early tonight will be the turning point. Historically, after “fully priced-in rate hikes” are implemented, within 48 hours BTC has an average rebound of 4%—8%. If the dot plot and the wording from the officials come in less hawkish than expected, the rebound could be even stronger. Conversely, if $75,000 breaks, downside could extend to $73,000.
#比特币跌至7.6万美元 #以太坊跌破2400美元
On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin fell below $76,000. During the session, it briefly dipped to $74,910, the lowest level since September. In the past 24 hours, it dropped more than 4%; Ethereum slipped below $2,400; XRP crashed more than 10%. Across the entire market, nearly 120,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of about $670 million—of which long positions accounted for $570 million.
The downside news is twofold:
First, the U.S. Senate rejected the “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” by a procedural vote of 50 to 49. That is 10 votes short of the 60 required for passage. The Democrats collectively opposed it citing Trump’s crypto-related conflict of interest. The “regulatory clarity” outcome that relied on years of lobbying money—amounting to billions of dollars—has fallen through, and with less than two months until the midterm elections, hopes of restarting this within the year are slim.
Second, on the eve of the Fed decision, the probability of a rate hike is over 92%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury ended at 5.005%, the highest since 2007. Oil prices rose again, stoking inflation concerns, putting pressure on non-yielding assets.
Crypto-related stocks also tumbled in tandem: Circle fell more than 11%, and Coinbase dropped more than 10%. But on-chain, sentiment isn’t entirely bearish: stablecoin readiness capital remains at a high of $310 billion, and a large whale increased its holdings by 60,000 BTC in August.
My take: The Fed’s decision taking effect early tonight will be the turning point. Historically, after “fully priced-in rate hikes” are implemented, within 48 hours BTC has an average rebound of 4%—8%. If the dot plot and the wording from the officials come in less hawkish than expected, the rebound could be even stronger. Conversely, if $75,000 breaks, downside could extend to $73,000.
#比特币跌至7.6万美元 #以太坊跌破2400美元
