$BTC ♟️ Two Paths Before the Event
⚪ Early Observation｜For this round, we only prepared a rebound from the prior low.
⏰ Beijing time: Sept 16成交价 75,871.90
Mark price 75,924.00｜Index price 75,938.58
📆 Today 20:30 U.S. Retail Sales and tomorrow 02:00 Fed decision—both results are still pending. At the moment, this rebound cannot be priced in advance as those outcomes.
🧮 As of 10:00, the long-account ratio is 64.55% for BTC regular accounts, 65.52% for large accounts, and large-account positioning statistics at 70.02%; from 08:00–10:00, the OI quantity increased by about 0.29%. This only reflects positioning and account distribution—it does not directly prove how much capital is bottom-fishing.
↗️ If the price returns to the prior-low area, prepare the following rebound plan:
Support: 75,089 / 74,909.
Resistance: 76,210 / 77,324.
Long on the left-side range: 74,950—75,100.
Hard stop-loss: 74,550.
First reduction target: 75,900.
Second target: 76,200.
After a 15-minute sweep low within the range, then reclaim 75,089—and only if active buy volume exceeds sell volume—will we consider attempting a long. If at confirmation the price has already risen above 75,100, abandon this entry.
↘️ If no entry yet, and the hourly line closes below 74,909 first, the evidence that the down move will continue is stronger, so cancel the long-entry plan. We won’t take the same plan and temporarily flip to chase shorts.
⏸️ We are not yet in the long-entry range. Recheck at 12:00 and reassess before tonight’s data release; the main risk is news-driven volatility causing stop-loss execution slippage.
⚪ Early Observation｜For this round, we only prepared a rebound from the prior low.
⏰ Beijing time: Sept 16成交价 75,871.90
Mark price 75,924.00｜Index price 75,938.58
📆 Today 20:30 U.S. Retail Sales and tomorrow 02:00 Fed decision—both results are still pending. At the moment, this rebound cannot be priced in advance as those outcomes.
🧮 As of 10:00, the long-account ratio is 64.55% for BTC regular accounts, 65.52% for large accounts, and large-account positioning statistics at 70.02%; from 08:00–10:00, the OI quantity increased by about 0.29%. This only reflects positioning and account distribution—it does not directly prove how much capital is bottom-fishing.
↗️ If the price returns to the prior-low area, prepare the following rebound plan:
Support: 75,089 / 74,909.
Resistance: 76,210 / 77,324.
Long on the left-side range: 74,950—75,100.
Hard stop-loss: 74,550.
First reduction target: 75,900.
Second target: 76,200.
After a 15-minute sweep low within the range, then reclaim 75,089—and only if active buy volume exceeds sell volume—will we consider attempting a long. If at confirmation the price has already risen above 75,100, abandon this entry.
↘️ If no entry yet, and the hourly line closes below 74,909 first, the evidence that the down move will continue is stronger, so cancel the long-entry plan. We won’t take the same plan and temporarily flip to chase shorts.
⏸️ We are not yet in the long-entry range. Recheck at 12:00 and reassess before tonight’s data release; the main risk is news-driven volatility causing stop-loss execution slippage.