Family, the market is watching a key decision ahead of this Wednesday.
Polymarket is pricing an 84% chance the Fed hikes rates by a quarter point, taking the target to 3.75%-4.00%. But August's inflation data is mixed — annual core CPI cooled to 2.4%, yet the monthly increase actually accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3%. The Fed's real target measure (PCE) is still at 3.7%.
Fed Chair Warsh pointed out that 54% of spending categories now show price increases above 3%, compared to just 32% before the pandemic — meaning inflation has spread far beyond just oil. But even Warsh voted to hold in July.
The real question is what path comes after the hike:
— A soft future path → stocks/Bitcoin could rally
— A tighter path → pressure builds on risk assets
— A surprise hold → could rally at first, then fade if it looks like tolerance for inflation
The decision lands Wednesday 2pm NY time, Warsh speaks at 2:30pm. The actual PCE data won't even be out until September 30th — meaning this decision is being made on incomplete data.
Bottom line — the hike itself matters less than the rate path shown afterward. Watch the 2-year yield and October pricing — that's what really decides Bitcoin's next move.
$AKE | $CROSS | $SYN
Small size, SL always. #family #crypto
Polymarket is pricing an 84% chance the Fed hikes rates by a quarter point, taking the target to 3.75%-4.00%. But August's inflation data is mixed — annual core CPI cooled to 2.4%, yet the monthly increase actually accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3%. The Fed's real target measure (PCE) is still at 3.7%.
Fed Chair Warsh pointed out that 54% of spending categories now show price increases above 3%, compared to just 32% before the pandemic — meaning inflation has spread far beyond just oil. But even Warsh voted to hold in July.
The real question is what path comes after the hike:
— A soft future path → stocks/Bitcoin could rally
— A tighter path → pressure builds on risk assets
— A surprise hold → could rally at first, then fade if it looks like tolerance for inflation
The decision lands Wednesday 2pm NY time, Warsh speaks at 2:30pm. The actual PCE data won't even be out until September 30th — meaning this decision is being made on incomplete data.
Bottom line — the hike itself matters less than the rate path shown afterward. Watch the 2-year yield and October pricing — that's what really decides Bitcoin's next move.
$AKE | $CROSS | $SYN
Small size, SL always. #family #crypto