The US government bond interest rate for the 10-year term is touching the 5% mark—very high compared to the past 6–7 years.

Everyone still expects an early BTC uptrend, but with macro conditions remaining difficult—like the US and Iran driving oil prices up, potentially keeping them at high levels—making inflation hard to reduce… The Japanese Yen is also strengthening again to above $ , which leads investors to sell some foreign risk assets in order to cover yen-denominated loan interest, including Bitcoin and crypto. Or will the Fed keep interest rates high, and even possibly raise them?

Everything seems to be against it. If you look back at the 2020–2021 uptrend, the US 10-year bond yield at that time was only around 0.5%, just 1/10 of what it is now.

So instead of forcing it with the market, why not just sit and observe the price and macro conditions to see whether there’s an opportunity for the trend to reverse?

Note: Sharing personal viewpoints is not investment advice!

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