Watching for now: it’s leaning bearish to neutral, but I personally still won’t chase BTC. In the last round I said 74896 is the bottom line—if it can’t hold above 76350, don’t celebrate too early. Now that judgment still seems valid: BTC hasn’t broken down through 74896, which suggests real support at the lows. But the price has only moved back to around 75920, and it’s still a bit away from the short-term recovery threshold at 76350. And forget about the 1-hour resistance pressure at 77324. So I admit this rebound has improved, but it hasn’t reached the point where I’m willing to proactively chase longs.

On indicators: the 15-minute RSI is back to 53, meaning the short-term has climbed out of oversold conditions. The 1-hour RSI is only 42.1, and the 4-hour RSI is around 36.8—bigger timeframes are still weak. The 24-hour drop is still about 2.3%, indicating we’re in the overall repair phase after a decline, not a strong trend reversal. The funding rate is still slightly positive, about 0.0059%, which I don’t like much: price hasn’t truly turned strong yet, but the long-side cost hasn’t fully cooled down either. When hitting a resistance level, it can easily get knocked back by sell pressure after a rebound.

If I were trading myself, I’m not chasing longs anywhere near 75,900 right now, and I wouldn’t directly chase a short either. My plan is like this: First, if BTC breaks out with volume and reclaims 76,350, and then pulls back to 76,000 without breaking it, I’ll consider a very small-position long. The initial target is to look for 76,800 to 77,324; if it falls back below 75,600, I’ll withdraw. Second, if it pushes up to around 76,350 but the volume is insufficient and a 15-minute chart shows a spike-and-rejection, then I’ll instead look for a small-position short opportunity. I’ll place the stop loss above 76,650, with the first target at 75,300, and then 74,896. Third, if the 1-hour candle closes below 74,896, I’ll believe the earlier support validation has failed. I won’t fantasize about a rebound for the short term anymore; I’ll wait for a pullback and then look for continuation to the downside.

My emotions are fairly restrained right now: BTC hasn’t continued to break down, which is a good thing, but it also hasn’t reclaimed the key resistance. For me, 74,896 is the retreat line, 76,350 is the threshold to try a long, and 77,324 is the confirmation point for a stronger repair. It’s better to stay still in the middle zone than to randomly guess direction. The above is only personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC