Macro Focus:
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Sept. 17, the Fed’s highly anticipated policy meeting is coming!
At present, the market has already largely priced in a rate hike as a high-probability event, absorbing most of the downside risks in advance (bad news exhausted is good news).
Tonight’s key is not whether it will be a hike, but whether the Fed’s stance is hawkish or dovish. Pay close attention to any upward/downward adjustments in the dot plot, and whether the subsequent press conference will release a “continued tightening” signal. Before and after the data releases, the market is prone to sharp up-and-down intraday swings—buckle up!
Market outlook:
Long term (weekly level): The major trend remains bullish. With the twin support of central banks around the world continuously accumulating gold and inflows into ETF funds, the current pullback is merely the first round of consolidation after the up move. Bulls still have plenty of confidence.
Short term (daily/hourly): On the daily chart, price is currently in a downward channel, and hourly swing highs keep stepping lower.
Heavy resistance overhead: 4320 – 4360. If the rebound can’t break through this range, it will be difficult for bulls to make a big move.
Support below: 4240. Once there is a valid breakdown, downside room will open up again.
Trading idea:
This is a make-or-break night. It’s not recommended to rush into a buy at current prices and catch a falling knife. If you really want to go long, we should wait for the market to pull back and confirm, then set up positions in advance at the key support area to trade the upside rebound potential.
Trading instrument: Gold $XAU
Trade direction: Long
Leverage: 10x
Entry range (pending/limit for trapping positions): 4240 - 4203
Target level (take profit): 4340
Defensive level (stop loss): 4170
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Sept. 17, the Fed’s highly anticipated policy meeting is coming!
At present, the market has already largely priced in a rate hike as a high-probability event, absorbing most of the downside risks in advance (bad news exhausted is good news).
Tonight’s key is not whether it will be a hike, but whether the Fed’s stance is hawkish or dovish. Pay close attention to any upward/downward adjustments in the dot plot, and whether the subsequent press conference will release a “continued tightening” signal. Before and after the data releases, the market is prone to sharp up-and-down intraday swings—buckle up!
Market outlook:
Long term (weekly level): The major trend remains bullish. With the twin support of central banks around the world continuously accumulating gold and inflows into ETF funds, the current pullback is merely the first round of consolidation after the up move. Bulls still have plenty of confidence.
Short term (daily/hourly): On the daily chart, price is currently in a downward channel, and hourly swing highs keep stepping lower.
Heavy resistance overhead: 4320 – 4360. If the rebound can’t break through this range, it will be difficult for bulls to make a big move.
Support below: 4240. Once there is a valid breakdown, downside room will open up again.
Trading idea:
This is a make-or-break night. It’s not recommended to rush into a buy at current prices and catch a falling knife. If you really want to go long, we should wait for the market to pull back and confirm, then set up positions in advance at the key support area to trade the upside rebound potential.
Trading instrument: Gold $XAU
Trade direction: Long
Leverage: 10x
Entry range (pending/limit for trapping positions): 4240 - 4203
Target level (take profit): 4340
Defensive level (stop loss): 4170