Tonight’s Key Focus: FOMC Decision #FOMO
At present, the market assigns a probability of about 92% to a 25-basis-point rate hike. Therefore, the hike itself is already close to a “sure bet.”
What truly needs attention tonight are three aspects:
First is the dot plot.
Second is the outlook for subsequent rate hikes.
Third is whether the wording and remarks from the Chair lean hawkish or dovish.
There may be three scenarios:
First, a rate hike plus a hawkish dot plot.
The US dollar may continue to strengthen, putting pressure on BTC. The key thing to watch is the $74,500–$75,000 support zone.
Second, a rate hike, but the wording is neutral-to-dovish.
A “bad news cleared out” situation may occur. BTC could dip first for a shakeout, then begin a corrective rebound.
Third, an unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged.
The dollar could weaken quickly, reducing macro pressure on BTC, and a strong rebound may occur in the short term.
Trading Ideas
The focus tonight is stability first—don’t bet on a single direction.
For spot trading, you can prioritize these three support levels:
$74,500–$75,000: the first observation zone. If you see increased volume with absorption and signs of a bottoming out, then consider probing with a small position.
Around $73,500: an important structural support near the 50-day and 200-day EMA.
Around $71,300: near the 100-day EMA, which can be viewed as an important support in extreme conditions.
If BTC breaks below $71,000 and further drops to $64,000, then the near-term rhythm of this bull market may be disrupted. $64,000 corresponds to the 200-week moving average, making it the more critical weekly structural level. $BTC #BTC走势分析
At present, the market assigns a probability of about 92% to a 25-basis-point rate hike. Therefore, the hike itself is already close to a “sure bet.”
What truly needs attention tonight are three aspects:
First is the dot plot.
Second is the outlook for subsequent rate hikes.
Third is whether the wording and remarks from the Chair lean hawkish or dovish.
There may be three scenarios:
First, a rate hike plus a hawkish dot plot.
The US dollar may continue to strengthen, putting pressure on BTC. The key thing to watch is the $74,500–$75,000 support zone.
Second, a rate hike, but the wording is neutral-to-dovish.
A “bad news cleared out” situation may occur. BTC could dip first for a shakeout, then begin a corrective rebound.
Third, an unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged.
The dollar could weaken quickly, reducing macro pressure on BTC, and a strong rebound may occur in the short term.
Trading Ideas
The focus tonight is stability first—don’t bet on a single direction.
For spot trading, you can prioritize these three support levels:
$74,500–$75,000: the first observation zone. If you see increased volume with absorption and signs of a bottoming out, then consider probing with a small position.
Around $73,500: an important structural support near the 50-day and 200-day EMA.
Around $71,300: near the 100-day EMA, which can be viewed as an important support in extreme conditions.
If BTC breaks below $71,000 and further drops to $64,000, then the near-term rhythm of this bull market may be disrupted. $64,000 corresponds to the 200-week moving average, making it the more critical weekly structural level. $BTC #BTC走势分析
