Brothers, there are a lot of key things to watch this week on the macro front. The core focus is still the FOMC; next come retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed data, and other releases.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve will publish its interest rate decision and economic projections.
On the 17th, there will be employment and manufacturing data. The market can easily reprice ahead of time based on the data.
Currently, the market’s expectation for a 25bp rate hike is already very high, so the hike itself may not be the biggest downside risk. What we really need to guard against is Powell and the dot plot coming in more hawkish than expected. In addition, both oil prices and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are at elevated levels, so the short-term pressure on risk assets remains relatively high.
$BTC : If it breaks below 75,000: it means the support at today’s low has failed; don’t rush to bottom-fish. First, watch for further downside. Recover back above 77,000–78,000: that would indicate the pressure from shorts is starting to ease—then you can consider going long after a pullback and confirmation. Break above 78,000 and hold: that would be more like a real repair; short positions should be treated with much more caution.
$ETH : If it breaks below around 2,350: the structure remains on the weaker side—don’t try to catch it there. If it reclaims 2,450–2,500: that would suggest the repair effort is clearly strengthening. Only if it breaks above 2,500 and holds can we say the short-term weakness has truly been turned around. Personally, I won’t be fixated on one direction all week. Before the FOMC, we may continue to see choppy “washout” action; only after the FOMC will the market truly choose a direction.
At this kind of level, the easiest thing to happen is: “it looks like it’s going down but suddenly rallies,” or “it looks like it’s going up but suddenly sells off.” Position control matters more than guessing the direction.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve will publish its interest rate decision and economic projections.
On the 17th, there will be employment and manufacturing data. The market can easily reprice ahead of time based on the data.
Currently, the market’s expectation for a 25bp rate hike is already very high, so the hike itself may not be the biggest downside risk. What we really need to guard against is Powell and the dot plot coming in more hawkish than expected. In addition, both oil prices and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are at elevated levels, so the short-term pressure on risk assets remains relatively high.
$BTC : If it breaks below 75,000: it means the support at today’s low has failed; don’t rush to bottom-fish. First, watch for further downside. Recover back above 77,000–78,000: that would indicate the pressure from shorts is starting to ease—then you can consider going long after a pullback and confirmation. Break above 78,000 and hold: that would be more like a real repair; short positions should be treated with much more caution.
$ETH : If it breaks below around 2,350: the structure remains on the weaker side—don’t try to catch it there. If it reclaims 2,450–2,500: that would suggest the repair effort is clearly strengthening. Only if it breaks above 2,500 and holds can we say the short-term weakness has truly been turned around. Personally, I won’t be fixated on one direction all week. Before the FOMC, we may continue to see choppy “washout” action; only after the FOMC will the market truly choose a direction.
At this kind of level, the easiest thing to happen is: “it looks like it’s going down but suddenly rallies,” or “it looks like it’s going up but suddenly sells off.” Position control matters more than guessing the direction.
