At 2 a.m., the Fed’s interest-rate decision meeting coincides with the latest remarks from the Whose/“Waller” (as referenced), which could become a key event determining Bitcoin’s short- to mid-term direction. What can be said for sure is that tonight’s price action is unlikely to be calm.
First, let’s look at the chart: Yesterday, BTC kept falling from around $79,600, bottoming at $74,967, before rebounding to around $75,800. The key focus in the near term is $76,000—this level has already become the clear line dividing strength between bulls and bears.
In terms of volume, the bulls are clearly losing momentum (shrinking volume), while bearish volume continues to increase, suggesting the market is pricing in risk ahead of time. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, and crypto-related stocks were also under pressure. Overall, the market is in an obvious low-volume wait-and-see mode.
Regarding capital flows, the BTC ETF ended its streak of three straight weeks of net inflows; recently it saw about 6,000 BTC in net outflows. Some large whales have also started to reduce positions. However, big players overall still maintain a relatively high long exposure. So, for now, it looks more like a shift from aggressive long positions to cautious waiting, not something that can simply be interpreted as a full turn to net short.
From above, the $77,000–$80,000 zone is a clear supply area. If the price rebounds up into this range, it may face heavy sell pressure. On a larger level, the 365-day moving average is around $81,700. Whether price can regain and hold above this level will affect the continuation of the bull-market structure. $BTC #BTC走势分析
First, let’s look at the chart: Yesterday, BTC kept falling from around $79,600, bottoming at $74,967, before rebounding to around $75,800. The key focus in the near term is $76,000—this level has already become the clear line dividing strength between bulls and bears.
In terms of volume, the bulls are clearly losing momentum (shrinking volume), while bearish volume continues to increase, suggesting the market is pricing in risk ahead of time. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, and crypto-related stocks were also under pressure. Overall, the market is in an obvious low-volume wait-and-see mode.
Regarding capital flows, the BTC ETF ended its streak of three straight weeks of net inflows; recently it saw about 6,000 BTC in net outflows. Some large whales have also started to reduce positions. However, big players overall still maintain a relatively high long exposure. So, for now, it looks more like a shift from aggressive long positions to cautious waiting, not something that can simply be interpreted as a full turn to net short.
From above, the $77,000–$80,000 zone is a clear supply area. If the price rebounds up into this range, it may face heavy sell pressure. On a larger level, the 365-day moving average is around $81,700. Whether price can regain and hold above this level will affect the continuation of the bull-market structure. $BTC #BTC走势分析
