Tomorrow at 2:00 a.m.
Keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% (the current mainstream market expectation)
If the rate remains unchanged, the focus will be on the post-meeting statement, the dot plot, and the wording of the remarks by the Fed Chair.
If the stance is more dovish: it suggests that further rate hikes will not continue, and even preserves room for future rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar would come under downward pressure, which is favorable for gold—making it easier for gold prices to rebound and repair.
If the stance is more hawkish: although there will be no rate hike this time, the dot plot indicates there is still a possibility of rate hikes within the year, emphasizing inflation risks. In the short term, the U.S. dollar may strengthen again; gold would first face pressure and trade in a range, with rebound strength likely limited.
Hike by 25 bps, raising the rate to 4.00% (low probability)
This would be a hawkish result that exceeds market expectations. The market would immediately reprice a higher interest-rate cycle. The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields would surge quickly, and gold would face direct downside pressure, with a bearish trend being released again.
Cut by 25 bps (extremely unlikely)
This would be a major unexpected positive. The U.S. dollar would weaken rapidly, and gold would see a strong surge, entering a wave of rebound.
#美联储加息是否已成定局 $XAU
Keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% (the current mainstream market expectation)
If the rate remains unchanged, the focus will be on the post-meeting statement, the dot plot, and the wording of the remarks by the Fed Chair.
If the stance is more dovish: it suggests that further rate hikes will not continue, and even preserves room for future rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar would come under downward pressure, which is favorable for gold—making it easier for gold prices to rebound and repair.
If the stance is more hawkish: although there will be no rate hike this time, the dot plot indicates there is still a possibility of rate hikes within the year, emphasizing inflation risks. In the short term, the U.S. dollar may strengthen again; gold would first face pressure and trade in a range, with rebound strength likely limited.
Hike by 25 bps, raising the rate to 4.00% (low probability)
This would be a hawkish result that exceeds market expectations. The market would immediately reprice a higher interest-rate cycle. The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields would surge quickly, and gold would face direct downside pressure, with a bearish trend being released again.
Cut by 25 bps (extremely unlikely)
This would be a major unexpected positive. The U.S. dollar would weaken rapidly, and gold would see a strong surge, entering a wave of rebound.
#美联储加息是否已成定局 $XAU
