To be honest, before ignition, you should first look at the confirmation. This four-hour candle, $BR , has crashed down—by now, the chart structure has already said everything clearly. Falling 60% in a single day: this is not a shakeout; it’s the chips fleeing in panic. I checked its volume changes over the past few days: during the sell-off, those candles were all on rising volume; but during the rebounds, the volume shrank sharply. What does that mean? Nobody is willing to take the position at this level. The real bottom is formed by drying-out volume and slow grinding—not by a high-volume dump. And the sequence is reversed. The road ahead is still long.
Someone asked: with such a big drop, can you still short?
My view is that a large drop never automatically equals reaching the bottom. Looking at the chart: every time there’s a rebound back into the prior area of heavy, dense trading, it gets pushed back down. There’s one long upper shadow after another—this is the classic pattern of powerless bounces. The moving-average system has all spread downward, with no sign at all of any turning point in the short term. The price can’t even get above the most recent short-term moving average. In this situation, talking about bottom-picking is a terrible risk-reward proposition. There’s also a detail: after a sharp sell-off, there’s usually a period of sideways consolidation. Many people misread that as stabilization. But if, during the consolidation, the volume keeps shrinking and the highs keep stepping lower, then it’s only a pause before the next leg down.
What I’m watching now is the upper edge of this consolidation range. As long as it can’t break up through it, the direction hasn’t changed. The valuation logic of altcoins has always been fragile. Once capital leaves, the speed of returning downward can be much faster than the speed of rising. At this point, the upside is basically emotional repair, while the downside is value reversion—clearly asymmetrical. When the confirmation signal comes out, ignition often happens in a single instant. $BR
Gaze at the vastness from the mountains and seas; observe the market’s subtle shifts.
Walk alongside Uncle Xiong, and witness profits and losses across the skies.
#BR
Click below to trade 👇
Someone asked: with such a big drop, can you still short?
My view is that a large drop never automatically equals reaching the bottom. Looking at the chart: every time there’s a rebound back into the prior area of heavy, dense trading, it gets pushed back down. There’s one long upper shadow after another—this is the classic pattern of powerless bounces. The moving-average system has all spread downward, with no sign at all of any turning point in the short term. The price can’t even get above the most recent short-term moving average. In this situation, talking about bottom-picking is a terrible risk-reward proposition. There’s also a detail: after a sharp sell-off, there’s usually a period of sideways consolidation. Many people misread that as stabilization. But if, during the consolidation, the volume keeps shrinking and the highs keep stepping lower, then it’s only a pause before the next leg down.
What I’m watching now is the upper edge of this consolidation range. As long as it can’t break up through it, the direction hasn’t changed. The valuation logic of altcoins has always been fragile. Once capital leaves, the speed of returning downward can be much faster than the speed of rising. At this point, the upside is basically emotional repair, while the downside is value reversion—clearly asymmetrical. When the confirmation signal comes out, ignition often happens in a single instant. $BR
Gaze at the vastness from the mountains and seas; observe the market’s subtle shifts.
Walk alongside Uncle Xiong, and witness profits and losses across the skies.
#BR
Click below to trade 👇