The market isn’t that it doesn’t trust regulation—it doesn’t trust "this point in time".
CLARITY: The procedural vote yesterday didn’t pass, 49-50—needs 60. In this narrative, the biggest beneficiaries that were being hyped the most actually fell the hardest: XRP dropped -9% in a day. For the past two years, it has been one of the most direct beneficiaries of "federal rule clarification." But once this gets pushed back to after the midterm election, there’s no reason left for the capital that buys "certainty" to stay.
Coinbase and Circle both fell by about 10%—that part is clear. What you can’t see is the short-term money that surged in over the past two weeks because the "bill was going to pass"—and now they need to find the next narrative.
My take: this isn’t a sector-wide crash; it’s a catalyst that failed to deliver. The bill isn’t dead—it’s been postponed. And a postponement is harder to trade than a rejection, because it has no end point.
Looking ahead, there are two things: 1) whether the SEC / CFTC will issue rules on their own by the 16th as Armstrong said; and 2) among the coins that front-ran the "bill run," which one bounces back first—that’s the real demand. If they’re still shouting that "the good news hasn’t changed," they’re likely the last one holding the baton.
CLARITY: The procedural vote yesterday didn’t pass, 49-50—needs 60. In this narrative, the biggest beneficiaries that were being hyped the most actually fell the hardest: XRP dropped -9% in a day. For the past two years, it has been one of the most direct beneficiaries of "federal rule clarification." But once this gets pushed back to after the midterm election, there’s no reason left for the capital that buys "certainty" to stay.
Coinbase and Circle both fell by about 10%—that part is clear. What you can’t see is the short-term money that surged in over the past two weeks because the "bill was going to pass"—and now they need to find the next narrative.
My take: this isn’t a sector-wide crash; it’s a catalyst that failed to deliver. The bill isn’t dead—it’s been postponed. And a postponement is harder to trade than a rejection, because it has no end point.
Looking ahead, there are two things: 1) whether the SEC / CFTC will issue rules on their own by the 16th as Armstrong said; and 2) among the coins that front-ran the "bill run," which one bounces back first—that’s the real demand. If they’re still shouting that "the good news hasn’t changed," they’re likely the last one holding the baton.