AllScale 2026-09-16 Encrypted Macro Daily
1. Rate hikes and the risk of compressed risk appetite from long-term yields
Ahead of the Fed meeting in the US, CPI, oil prices, and AI investment demand have pushed rate-hike expectations to elevated levels, and yields on 30-year US Treasuries continue to rise. The backdrop is that inflation pressure is returning from both the energy and capital expenditure fronts, and the market has begun reassessing a longer period of high interest rates. The impact is that BTC depends not only on spot buying, but also on whether post-meeting statements remain hawkish; if long-end yields stay high, altcoins, leveraged capital, and high-valuation tech narratives will face pressure first.
2. The CLARITY Act shifts from regulatory upside to political risk
The CLARITY Act has run into obstacles in advancing in the Senate. Expectations in the market for the bill’s passage have been scaled back, with disagreements concentrated around the Trump family’s crypto interests, restrictions on officials issuing tokens, the enforcement authority of state attorneys general, and the arrangement of stablecoin yield. The background is that while the market-structure bill was originally intended to clarify the SEC/CFTC division of roles, ethical provisions became a hurdle for getting it through committee. The impact is that exchanges, DeFi, and stablecoins still lack a unified federal framework in the near term; the industry can only rely on regulatory agencies’ rules and case-by-case enforcement. The US advantage in regulatory clarity continues to be eroded by jurisdictions such as the UK and the EU.
3. Stablecoins and confidential DeFi move into infrastructure verification
Zama has opened 16 confidential Morpho vaults on Ethereum and launched private swaps, and the market is also watching USDC’s cumulative on-chain transaction volume as it approaches the $1 quadrillion node. The backdrop is that institutions need efficient stablecoin settlement, but they also do not want to reveal positions, strategies, and transaction amounts on public chains. The impact is that the next round of infrastructure competition will shift from “can it be deployed on-chain” to “can it be deployed on-chain in a compliant, private, and auditable way.” Wallet entry points, selective disclosure, and enterprise-grade distribution networks will become key.
The above content is only a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice.
1. Rate hikes and the risk of compressed risk appetite from long-term yields
Ahead of the Fed meeting in the US, CPI, oil prices, and AI investment demand have pushed rate-hike expectations to elevated levels, and yields on 30-year US Treasuries continue to rise. The backdrop is that inflation pressure is returning from both the energy and capital expenditure fronts, and the market has begun reassessing a longer period of high interest rates. The impact is that BTC depends not only on spot buying, but also on whether post-meeting statements remain hawkish; if long-end yields stay high, altcoins, leveraged capital, and high-valuation tech narratives will face pressure first.
2. The CLARITY Act shifts from regulatory upside to political risk
The CLARITY Act has run into obstacles in advancing in the Senate. Expectations in the market for the bill’s passage have been scaled back, with disagreements concentrated around the Trump family’s crypto interests, restrictions on officials issuing tokens, the enforcement authority of state attorneys general, and the arrangement of stablecoin yield. The background is that while the market-structure bill was originally intended to clarify the SEC/CFTC division of roles, ethical provisions became a hurdle for getting it through committee. The impact is that exchanges, DeFi, and stablecoins still lack a unified federal framework in the near term; the industry can only rely on regulatory agencies’ rules and case-by-case enforcement. The US advantage in regulatory clarity continues to be eroded by jurisdictions such as the UK and the EU.
3. Stablecoins and confidential DeFi move into infrastructure verification
Zama has opened 16 confidential Morpho vaults on Ethereum and launched private swaps, and the market is also watching USDC’s cumulative on-chain transaction volume as it approaches the $1 quadrillion node. The backdrop is that institutions need efficient stablecoin settlement, but they also do not want to reveal positions, strategies, and transaction amounts on public chains. The impact is that the next round of infrastructure competition will shift from “can it be deployed on-chain” to “can it be deployed on-chain in a compliant, private, and auditable way.” Wallet entry points, selective disclosure, and enterprise-grade distribution networks will become key.
The above content is only a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice.
