$BTC rubbing repeatedly around 75,000, retail investors panic and cut losses, and the fear/greed index drops to 16. But on-chain data is straightforward: big whales are building positions around 78,000, with more than $200 million large orders still sitting on the order book, waiting. U.S. asset management firm Strive just increased its holdings at an average price of 77,954 by buying 469 BTC, bringing total holdings to 25,000 BTC. Institutions aren’t running—leveraged retail traders are.
But tonight, everyone is waiting for one thing: the Fed’s rate decision.
According to CME data, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September has surged to 92.4%, with no change at only 7.6%. The market has already priced this in fully. The key isn’t whether the hike happens—it’s what’s said by “Waller” at the podium.
In Jackson Hole, Waller put it very bluntly: “We must have confidence that we are seeing potential inflation move clearly and quickly toward our goal; otherwise, the committee still has work to do.” The core PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, and over six months annualized is about 4.1%. Among 199 sub-items, 54% show growth above 3%, far above the pre-pandemic normal of 32%. What does this imply? If the dot plot hints there will be a second hike later in the year, risk assets will likely stay under pressure; if it’s just a “one-off hike,” then the downside is already “priced out.”
Now look at ZEC.
This year, the privacy sector is up 213% overall—according to Glassnode, it’s the only track still above BTC’s prior all-time high. When the broader market is down 36%, ZEC is rising. Over the past week, whales have aggressively swept 12,870 ZEC from the four major exchanges, moving them all into cold wallets. Above the 1134 level, there’s a pile of 42 million short positions that will determine liquidation intensity; below it, long liquidation is left at only 2.5 million. The biggest short on-chain began shorting from $444 and held it all the way to $1,200—currently an unrealized loss of more than $24 million.
The NU7 voting just finished. The smoothed emission curve replaced the four-year halving schedule; the block interval shrank from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while the total supply remains unchanged at 21 million. The halving narrative is gone, but the supply timing has been fundamentally altered.
Core view: before the rate decision is finalized, BTC will keep grinding back and forth in the 76,500 to 78,000 range. The hike itself has already been priced. The real variable is the wording from Waller’s press conference and the dot plot. If the tone is more hawkish than expected, BTC may directly test above $80,000. ZEC has already carved out an independent trend—funds are treating privacy as a separate trade.
#BTC走势分析 #zec #美联储
But tonight, everyone is waiting for one thing: the Fed’s rate decision.
According to CME data, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September has surged to 92.4%, with no change at only 7.6%. The market has already priced this in fully. The key isn’t whether the hike happens—it’s what’s said by “Waller” at the podium.
In Jackson Hole, Waller put it very bluntly: “We must have confidence that we are seeing potential inflation move clearly and quickly toward our goal; otherwise, the committee still has work to do.” The core PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, and over six months annualized is about 4.1%. Among 199 sub-items, 54% show growth above 3%, far above the pre-pandemic normal of 32%. What does this imply? If the dot plot hints there will be a second hike later in the year, risk assets will likely stay under pressure; if it’s just a “one-off hike,” then the downside is already “priced out.”
Now look at ZEC.
This year, the privacy sector is up 213% overall—according to Glassnode, it’s the only track still above BTC’s prior all-time high. When the broader market is down 36%, ZEC is rising. Over the past week, whales have aggressively swept 12,870 ZEC from the four major exchanges, moving them all into cold wallets. Above the 1134 level, there’s a pile of 42 million short positions that will determine liquidation intensity; below it, long liquidation is left at only 2.5 million. The biggest short on-chain began shorting from $444 and held it all the way to $1,200—currently an unrealized loss of more than $24 million.
The NU7 voting just finished. The smoothed emission curve replaced the four-year halving schedule; the block interval shrank from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while the total supply remains unchanged at 21 million. The halving narrative is gone, but the supply timing has been fundamentally altered.
Core view: before the rate decision is finalized, BTC will keep grinding back and forth in the 76,500 to 78,000 range. The hike itself has already been priced. The real variable is the wording from Waller’s press conference and the dot plot. If the tone is more hawkish than expected, BTC may directly test above $80,000. ZEC has already carved out an independent trend—funds are treating privacy as a separate trade.
#BTC走势分析 #zec #美联储
