What often really opens up the gap isn’t whether you bought the right thing, but whether you dare to reduce your position when the market is going crazy.
In a bull market, the easiest way to be fooled is the feeling that “my account is rising every day, so I must be doing it right.” In reality, price increases only show that beta is working—it doesn’t show that you’re controlling risk. Most people only realize it after a drawdown: the profit was borrowed from the market’s momentum, but your position sizing is your own.
My judgment framework is simple: first, distinguish whether this money is a trend position, a trading position, or a trial-and-error position. Trend positions are assessed by cycle, trading positions by sentiment, and trial-and-error positions by odds. When these three are mixed together, people get led around by the market.
The window won’t stay open forever. When everyone is no longer afraid, the odds usually have already changed. Now—do you dare to take another look at your positions? $BTC #Crypto
$UNI
In a bull market, the easiest way to be fooled is the feeling that “my account is rising every day, so I must be doing it right.” In reality, price increases only show that beta is working—it doesn’t show that you’re controlling risk. Most people only realize it after a drawdown: the profit was borrowed from the market’s momentum, but your position sizing is your own.
My judgment framework is simple: first, distinguish whether this money is a trend position, a trading position, or a trial-and-error position. Trend positions are assessed by cycle, trading positions by sentiment, and trial-and-error positions by odds. When these three are mixed together, people get led around by the market.
The window won’t stay open forever. When everyone is no longer afraid, the odds usually have already changed. Now—do you dare to take another look at your positions? $BTC #Crypto
$UNI