The《Clarity Act》that everyone has been paying attention to failed to secure enough votes in the Senate’s procedural cloture vote, signaling the bill’s passage attempt as unsuccessful.
This round of market performance is quite interesting: the bill is the core logic of this cycle’s crypto compliance narrative. After the bearish news was priced in and landed, BTC only briefly dipped with a wick down to 74,967, then quickly rebounded—no panic-style crash followed.
The reason behind it: the market had already priced in the low probability of the bill passing in advance (previously Polymarket put the odds at only 17%). Once the news landed, it became a classic “bad news already gone” situation, so the major sell-off that everyone feared did not materialize.
After the compliance narrative fades, the market’s main focus has switched back to the Federal Reserve’s macro policy. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision meeting tonight is the biggest variable ahead.
From the BTC macro charts, the market’s hawkish expectations for the Fed are already overloaded. Previously, the rally was driven by rate-cut fantasies, but this time the signals confirm: no rate cut in the near term, and even a possible rate hike. The crypto market’s long-driven momentum has already run too hot. Taking all factors into account, the probability favors the bears more tonight and over the course of this week.
If the Fed is more hawkish and announces a rate hike, renewed expectations of tighter liquidity could weigh on the market again, and BTC may have a further opportunity to pull back to test support around 72,000. #BTC
This round of market performance is quite interesting: the bill is the core logic of this cycle’s crypto compliance narrative. After the bearish news was priced in and landed, BTC only briefly dipped with a wick down to 74,967, then quickly rebounded—no panic-style crash followed.
The reason behind it: the market had already priced in the low probability of the bill passing in advance (previously Polymarket put the odds at only 17%). Once the news landed, it became a classic “bad news already gone” situation, so the major sell-off that everyone feared did not materialize.
After the compliance narrative fades, the market’s main focus has switched back to the Federal Reserve’s macro policy. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision meeting tonight is the biggest variable ahead.
From the BTC macro charts, the market’s hawkish expectations for the Fed are already overloaded. Previously, the rally was driven by rate-cut fantasies, but this time the signals confirm: no rate cut in the near term, and even a possible rate hike. The crypto market’s long-driven momentum has already run too hot. Taking all factors into account, the probability favors the bears more tonight and over the course of this week.
If the Fed is more hawkish and announces a rate hike, renewed expectations of tighter liquidity could weigh on the market again, and BTC may have a further opportunity to pull back to test support around 72,000. #BTC