9.16 Morning Fast Report｜📝
BTC around 75,800. Yesterday it was smashed all the way from 79,600 down to 75,600 in one go, with the early-morning low touching 75,000. ETH followed back above 2,400. The rebound candle around 79,000 ended within a day, and 76,000 also wasn’t held.
Saudi Arabia’s largest port in the Red Sea, Yanbu, has paused loading; some European September orders were canceled; oil prices continue to rise; and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit the highest in nearly 20 years. WTI 106, Brent 109. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.78%. Rate-hike probabilities were pushed up again by oil and yields, and FedWatch is now at 94%.
The FOMC runs through today. The interest-rate decision will be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, followed by Powell briefing reporters and the dot plot being unveiled together. A 25-basis-point hike is basically already priced in. The trading focus isn’t on whether they’ll hike or not, but on three things: how many more times the dot plot suggests this year; how oil prices and inflation are worded in the statement; and whether Powell acknowledges “there’s still more after the hike.”
Trump keeps saying they shouldn’t raise rates, and Haskett echoes that there’s no reason to. The futures market doesn’t listen. The GCC and Iran talks are still stalled; with the east–west pipeline and Yanbu loading both paused, the supply premium remains embedded in oil prices.
Crypto market: 75,000 is the new first line of defense. If it breaks, look for 74,000–72,000. Don’t front-run before the decision—don’t chase. If the rate hike is followed by a softer dot plot than expected, there may be an initial short covering move; if the dot plot turns hawkish one more layer, there’s still room below 75,000.
During the day, Asia’s buying has limited significance. Save your bullets for when the statement drops at 2:00 a.m.
BTC around 75,800. Yesterday it was smashed all the way from 79,600 down to 75,600 in one go, with the early-morning low touching 75,000. ETH followed back above 2,400. The rebound candle around 79,000 ended within a day, and 76,000 also wasn’t held.
Saudi Arabia’s largest port in the Red Sea, Yanbu, has paused loading; some European September orders were canceled; oil prices continue to rise; and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit the highest in nearly 20 years. WTI 106, Brent 109. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.78%. Rate-hike probabilities were pushed up again by oil and yields, and FedWatch is now at 94%.
The FOMC runs through today. The interest-rate decision will be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, followed by Powell briefing reporters and the dot plot being unveiled together. A 25-basis-point hike is basically already priced in. The trading focus isn’t on whether they’ll hike or not, but on three things: how many more times the dot plot suggests this year; how oil prices and inflation are worded in the statement; and whether Powell acknowledges “there’s still more after the hike.”
Trump keeps saying they shouldn’t raise rates, and Haskett echoes that there’s no reason to. The futures market doesn’t listen. The GCC and Iran talks are still stalled; with the east–west pipeline and Yanbu loading both paused, the supply premium remains embedded in oil prices.
Crypto market: 75,000 is the new first line of defense. If it breaks, look for 74,000–72,000. Don’t front-run before the decision—don’t chase. If the rate hike is followed by a softer dot plot than expected, there may be an initial short covering move; if the dot plot turns hawkish one more layer, there’s still room below 75,000.
During the day, Asia’s buying has limited significance. Save your bullets for when the statement drops at 2:00 a.m.