Today I'm watching the Federal Reserve. Bybit flipped about 40 times worth of FOMC moves from 2022–2026; after the announcement, over the first five minutes BTC is roughly evenly split up or down—basically a coin toss, with no clear historical edge.
The market is mostly already pricing in a 25bp hike (to a target range or roughly 3.75%–4.00%). What matters more now is the dot plot and Chair Warsh's post-meeting remarks. These past couple of days trading has been light, and futures positioning has also been declining over the first part of the month; a lot of people are waiting for the outcome to land before they act.$BTC #Federal Reserve
The market is mostly already pricing in a 25bp hike (to a target range or roughly 3.75%–4.00%). What matters more now is the dot plot and Chair Warsh's post-meeting remarks. These past couple of days trading has been light, and futures positioning has also been declining over the first part of the month; a lot of people are waiting for the outcome to land before they act.$BTC #Federal Reserve
