Oil prices surged overnight, dragging all risk assets down with them.
After Saudi’s east-to-west oil pipeline was attacked, it directly canceled oil tankers bound for Europe in September, and loading at the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea also halted. Libya’s oilfields then caused further production stoppages. Brent crude jumped to nearly $108, while WTI touched $105, hitting the highest level since May.
Once oil prices rise, inflation can’t be contained. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury surged to a new 19-year high. The market is already pricing in that the Federal Reserve won’t cut rates this round—and may even raise them.
This is bad news for crypto. As soon as rate-hike expectations surface, money flows out: Bitcoin is now $75,900, down 3.3% in a day. Ethereum is at 2402 and Solana at 98—everything is green across the board.
My take is straightforward: as long as oil prices don’t calm down, the Fed won’t dare to loosen policy. In the near term, risk appetite will stay tight. Don’t rush to buy the dip this time—wait for the Fed’s rate-decision “shoe” to drop, see whether it truly hikes or just talks tough, and then decide how to proceed.
After Saudi’s east-to-west oil pipeline was attacked, it directly canceled oil tankers bound for Europe in September, and loading at the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea also halted. Libya’s oilfields then caused further production stoppages. Brent crude jumped to nearly $108, while WTI touched $105, hitting the highest level since May.
Once oil prices rise, inflation can’t be contained. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury surged to a new 19-year high. The market is already pricing in that the Federal Reserve won’t cut rates this round—and may even raise them.
This is bad news for crypto. As soon as rate-hike expectations surface, money flows out: Bitcoin is now $75,900, down 3.3% in a day. Ethereum is at 2402 and Solana at 98—everything is green across the board.
My take is straightforward: as long as oil prices don’t calm down, the Fed won’t dare to loosen policy. In the near term, risk appetite will stay tight. Don’t rush to buy the dip this time—wait for the Fed’s rate-decision “shoe” to drop, see whether it truly hikes or just talks tough, and then decide how to proceed.