Oil prices are going crazy. WTI touched $105, Brent is approaching $108, hitting a five-month high.
The fuse is very clear: the Houthis cut off Saudi’s eastbound oil pipeline, the biggest Red Sea port for loading—Yemen’s Aden—has directly suspended shipments, and Saudi simply canceled September’s oil tankers headed to Europe. To make matters worse, Libya’s oil fields were also forced to shut down, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—two of the world’s oil lifelines are hit at the same time, and this supply gap can’t be filled in the short term.
The transmission to crypto is straightforward: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries broke above 5%—for the first time since 2023. Pushing inflation via oil prices is the main reason. Tomorrow the Fed meeting is on the agenda. The White House says it respects any decision from Powell, but in reality, the market is waiting for him to soften. $BTC has been linked more tightly to macro fundamentals lately than to technicals. If oil prices don’t cool down, risk assets won’t be able to see any meaningful rebound.
The AI side is interesting, though: a bunch of CEOs are calling for slowing down AI, but Trump directly shot that down and won’t allow a pause. Meta is still quietly developing its own chips. The story hasn’t broken—only the volatility has increased.
Keep an eye on oil prices, U.S. Treasuries, and the FOMC—three things. Don’t rush to bottom-fish.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #原油 #BTC #macroeconomics
The fuse is very clear: the Houthis cut off Saudi’s eastbound oil pipeline, the biggest Red Sea port for loading—Yemen’s Aden—has directly suspended shipments, and Saudi simply canceled September’s oil tankers headed to Europe. To make matters worse, Libya’s oil fields were also forced to shut down, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—two of the world’s oil lifelines are hit at the same time, and this supply gap can’t be filled in the short term.
The transmission to crypto is straightforward: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries broke above 5%—for the first time since 2023. Pushing inflation via oil prices is the main reason. Tomorrow the Fed meeting is on the agenda. The White House says it respects any decision from Powell, but in reality, the market is waiting for him to soften. $BTC has been linked more tightly to macro fundamentals lately than to technicals. If oil prices don’t cool down, risk assets won’t be able to see any meaningful rebound.
The AI side is interesting, though: a bunch of CEOs are calling for slowing down AI, but Trump directly shot that down and won’t allow a pause. Meta is still quietly developing its own chips. The story hasn’t broken—only the volatility has increased.
Keep an eye on oil prices, U.S. Treasuries, and the FOMC—three things. Don’t rush to bottom-fish.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #美联储 #原油 #BTC #macroeconomics