I never expected the bill to be passed through speculation; it’s just that my trading habits tell me my trading opportunity is here.
In September, the market has already priced in a rate hike. Even if there is one, it will likely be the bad news being absorbed and there won’t be any major volatility.
What the market is talking about now is a potential second rate hike within the year. I personally don’t think there will be a second one. The logic is that the U.S. economy is already in bad shape, and two rate hikes would only add to their economic burden.
Of course, the market moves on its own—I don’t know exactly how it will turn out. I’m just analyzing from the perspective of sentiment and cycles, and I believe this rally shouldn’t have only a 30% upside.
In September, the market has already priced in a rate hike. Even if there is one, it will likely be the bad news being absorbed and there won’t be any major volatility.
What the market is talking about now is a potential second rate hike within the year. I personally don’t think there will be a second one. The logic is that the U.S. economy is already in bad shape, and two rate hikes would only add to their economic burden.
Of course, the market moves on its own—I don’t know exactly how it will turn out. I’m just analyzing from the perspective of sentiment and cycles, and I believe this rally shouldn’t have only a 30% upside.