Tonight’s after-hours US session is just one word: expensive.
Brent surged to 108 dollars, the highest in more than a month since May. The Houthis hit Saudi east–west pipelines, loading at the Yanbu port was paused, and shipments of crude to Europe for September were directly canceled. Libya may also declare force majeure, and the Strait of Hormuz has again been announced as closed by the Revolutionary Guards. This time, supply really has been squeezed.
What’s even more troublesome is that the yield on US 10-year Treasuries has touched 5%, the first time since 2023. Bessent stubbornly insists it’s mainly the oil price’s fault—“a global issue”—but the market doesn’t see it that way: oil prices → inflation → yields → pressure on risk assets. Along that chain $BTC $ETH are all uncomfortable.
The main event is the FOMC meeting hosted by the Chair tomorrow night in Washington. The White House has already said it will “respect any decision the Chair makes,” with the person assigned to take the blame already in position. My view: if the Fed turns dovish while keeping oil prices in mind, $BTC will most likely follow the gold-led anti-inflation narrative—actually an opportunity. But if they stay hawkish, then in the short term just stand your ground; don’t rush to catch falling knives.
A war cost of 33.4 billion dollars, and ammunition inventories are running low—right now it’s only being priced into oil. Only when the market starts assigning it to the dollar’s creditworthiness will that be the real big move.
Hold your hand steady—don’t let your head get hot.
NFA, DYOR
#比特币 #加密货币 #美联储 #原油 #Macro
Brent surged to 108 dollars, the highest in more than a month since May. The Houthis hit Saudi east–west pipelines, loading at the Yanbu port was paused, and shipments of crude to Europe for September were directly canceled. Libya may also declare force majeure, and the Strait of Hormuz has again been announced as closed by the Revolutionary Guards. This time, supply really has been squeezed.
What’s even more troublesome is that the yield on US 10-year Treasuries has touched 5%, the first time since 2023. Bessent stubbornly insists it’s mainly the oil price’s fault—“a global issue”—but the market doesn’t see it that way: oil prices → inflation → yields → pressure on risk assets. Along that chain $BTC $ETH are all uncomfortable.
The main event is the FOMC meeting hosted by the Chair tomorrow night in Washington. The White House has already said it will “respect any decision the Chair makes,” with the person assigned to take the blame already in position. My view: if the Fed turns dovish while keeping oil prices in mind, $BTC will most likely follow the gold-led anti-inflation narrative—actually an opportunity. But if they stay hawkish, then in the short term just stand your ground; don’t rush to catch falling knives.
A war cost of 33.4 billion dollars, and ammunition inventories are running low—right now it’s only being priced into oil. Only when the market starts assigning it to the dollar’s creditworthiness will that be the real big move.
Hold your hand steady—don’t let your head get hot.
NFA, DYOR
#比特币 #加密货币 #美联储 #原油 #Macro