[The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is about to be released—has a rate hike become a foregone conclusion?]
With only a few hours left before the Fed’s September rate decision, the market is no longer debating “whether to hike or not”; it’s now trading what will happen after the rate hike.
At present, expectations for a 25-basis-point hike in September are already extremely high. The latest interest rate futures show the probability is over 90%. Meanwhile, August CPI year over year came in at 3.4%, core CPI month over month at 0.3%. Oil prices have continued to rise, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury once approached 5.03%. Inflation pressures are once again an issue the Fed cannot avoid.
So I believe a 25-basis-point hike has essentially already been priced in by the market.
The real uncertainty instead is:
Will Waller hint that further hikes will continue into December? And how many more times in 2027?
If tomorrow is “a 25bp hike + a neutral tone,” the market may see the typical rebound as bad news is “priced in.” Tech stocks, semiconductors, and crypto assets that sold off earlier could also see funds return.
But if it’s “25bp + a clearly hawkish signal,” then things are different—what the market is pricing won’t be just a single rate hike, but the start of a new tightening cycle. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and risk assets will all remain under pressure.
So tonight, I won’t guess whether the index will rise or fall.
What’s truly worth trading is the first sentence after tomorrow’s rate announcement.
$SNDK $SOXL $BTC
#美联储加息是否已成定局
With only a few hours left before the Fed’s September rate decision, the market is no longer debating “whether to hike or not”; it’s now trading what will happen after the rate hike.
At present, expectations for a 25-basis-point hike in September are already extremely high. The latest interest rate futures show the probability is over 90%. Meanwhile, August CPI year over year came in at 3.4%, core CPI month over month at 0.3%. Oil prices have continued to rise, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury once approached 5.03%. Inflation pressures are once again an issue the Fed cannot avoid.
So I believe a 25-basis-point hike has essentially already been priced in by the market.
The real uncertainty instead is:
Will Waller hint that further hikes will continue into December? And how many more times in 2027?
If tomorrow is “a 25bp hike + a neutral tone,” the market may see the typical rebound as bad news is “priced in.” Tech stocks, semiconductors, and crypto assets that sold off earlier could also see funds return.
But if it’s “25bp + a clearly hawkish signal,” then things are different—what the market is pricing won’t be just a single rate hike, but the start of a new tightening cycle. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and risk assets will all remain under pressure.
So tonight, I won’t guess whether the index will rise or fall.
What’s truly worth trading is the first sentence after tomorrow’s rate announcement.
$SNDK $SOXL $BTC
#美联储加息是否已成定局
