#FedRateWatch
Honestly, this time the Federal decision matters more than just raising or cutting rates. After the Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, the likelihood of a 25 basis-point hike has moved close to 90%. So the real question for me isn’t just: will they raise rates or not?
The question: what happens next?
If there is a hike, I think the first reaction could be negative for BTC and tech stocks, because liquidity becomes more expensive and pressure on high-risk assets increases. Gold may face some initial pressure too, but if the market starts to believe that the tightening will last longer, or if worries about the economy emerge, gold could benefit later as a safe haven.
For me, I don’t prefer to deploy all liquidity at once right before the decision. I’ll watch BTC’s price action and the market’s reaction after the announcement; if we see a significant drop while the overall trend remains strong, then I might have a chance for gradual buying instead of entering all at once.
But if the hike is just a one-off move and the market believes the Fed is near the end of the tightening cycle, then we could see the opposite: short-term pressure, followed by a return to buying.
In the end, the market usually moves on the news itself—it moves on the gap between the news and what people were expecting.
Honestly, this time the Federal decision matters more than just raising or cutting rates. After the Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, the likelihood of a 25 basis-point hike has moved close to 90%. So the real question for me isn’t just: will they raise rates or not?
The question: what happens next?
If there is a hike, I think the first reaction could be negative for BTC and tech stocks, because liquidity becomes more expensive and pressure on high-risk assets increases. Gold may face some initial pressure too, but if the market starts to believe that the tightening will last longer, or if worries about the economy emerge, gold could benefit later as a safe haven.
For me, I don’t prefer to deploy all liquidity at once right before the decision. I’ll watch BTC’s price action and the market’s reaction after the announcement; if we see a significant drop while the overall trend remains strong, then I might have a chance for gradual buying instead of entering all at once.
But if the hike is just a one-off move and the market believes the Fed is near the end of the tightening cycle, then we could see the opposite: short-term pressure, followed by a return to buying.
In the end, the market usually moves on the news itself—it moves on the gap between the news and what people were expecting.