#美联储加息是否已成定局
To be honest, at this point in time, market discussion is no longer about whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates. Instead, it’s about how many more times they will raise them after this one.
The latest interest-rate futures pricing shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed this week has been pushed to over 92%. In Reuters’ latest survey, 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. A few days ago, people were still debating whether to hold steady; now expectations have effectively completed a nearly 180-degree turn.
Why has it changed so quickly? The core driver is inflation. US August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. On top of that, the Middle East situation has pushed oil prices back to the high end again, meaning energy costs are putting a second round of pressure on inflation. More directly, it’s the bond market—10-year US Treasury yields have already surged to around 5%, the highest level since 2007.
So I think that even if this time is a 25-basis-point hike, what truly determines the market’s direction is not the 25 bps itself, but whether Powell signals that “this is only the first shot.”
If the dot plot continues to be revised higher and there’s still room for additional hikes by year-end, the US dollar and Treasury yields could continue to weigh on gold, US equities, and risk assets like BTC. Conversely, if it’s only a defensive hike accompanied by signals for further observation, the market may instead see a “bad news becomes good news” outcome.
What we fear most now is not the rate hike itself.
What we fear is that the market thinks it has already priced in the worst case—only for the Fed to tell you: the rate-hike cycle has just restarted.
That is the real drama of this week.
To be honest, at this point in time, market discussion is no longer about whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates. Instead, it’s about how many more times they will raise them after this one.
The latest interest-rate futures pricing shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed this week has been pushed to over 92%. In Reuters’ latest survey, 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. A few days ago, people were still debating whether to hold steady; now expectations have effectively completed a nearly 180-degree turn.
Why has it changed so quickly? The core driver is inflation. US August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. On top of that, the Middle East situation has pushed oil prices back to the high end again, meaning energy costs are putting a second round of pressure on inflation. More directly, it’s the bond market—10-year US Treasury yields have already surged to around 5%, the highest level since 2007.
So I think that even if this time is a 25-basis-point hike, what truly determines the market’s direction is not the 25 bps itself, but whether Powell signals that “this is only the first shot.”
If the dot plot continues to be revised higher and there’s still room for additional hikes by year-end, the US dollar and Treasury yields could continue to weigh on gold, US equities, and risk assets like BTC. Conversely, if it’s only a defensive hike accompanied by signals for further observation, the market may instead see a “bad news becomes good news” outcome.
What we fear most now is not the rate hike itself.
What we fear is that the market thinks it has already priced in the worst case—only for the Fed to tell you: the rate-hike cycle has just restarted.
That is the real drama of this week.
