$FIL this breakdown—I'm not bottom-buying for now. 0.8677 isn't just a “paper support”: it was just pierced by a 15-minute volume-spike bearish candle. Price slid from 0.8745 to 0.8624, with about $6.92 million in turnover; the next low even dipped to 0.8529, and any rebound still hasn't managed to reclaim the original support.
What’s harder to swallow is that the positions haven’t been fully washed out. Over the past ~3 hours, the open position count rose from 57.24 million to 58.33 million, up about 1.9%, and the funding rate is still +0.00488%. Across the market, long accounts are 64.6%, and big-holder long exposure is 72.6%, but the latest complete 15-minute aggressive buy/sell ratio is only 0.69. With price down and OI up, and aggressive sell orders in control—it looks more like new shorts entering while longs are getting stuck holding on, not a comfortable V-shaped bottom.
I only watch two signals: reclaim 0.875 on a 15-minute volume spike and then close back above it—only then will I acknowledge it was a false breakdown. If, on the 1-hour chart, price keeps closing below 0.855, then the next leg is still likely bearish. $FIL should first go test 0.85—does it, or should we squeeze back up to 0.88 first? #FIL #Filecoin #Contract data
What’s harder to swallow is that the positions haven’t been fully washed out. Over the past ~3 hours, the open position count rose from 57.24 million to 58.33 million, up about 1.9%, and the funding rate is still +0.00488%. Across the market, long accounts are 64.6%, and big-holder long exposure is 72.6%, but the latest complete 15-minute aggressive buy/sell ratio is only 0.69. With price down and OI up, and aggressive sell orders in control—it looks more like new shorts entering while longs are getting stuck holding on, not a comfortable V-shaped bottom.
I only watch two signals: reclaim 0.875 on a 15-minute volume spike and then close back above it—only then will I acknowledge it was a false breakdown. If, on the 1-hour chart, price keeps closing below 0.855, then the next leg is still likely bearish. $FIL should first go test 0.85—does it, or should we squeeze back up to 0.88 first? #FIL #Filecoin #Contract data
