Based on current market data and institutional forecasts, the probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike at its policy meeting this week (September 2026) is extremely high—almost a done deal—yet it has not been formally implemented.
1. Market expectations are highly consistent
According to CME’s FedWatch tool data (the instrument used by futures traders to bet on the Fed’s moves), the market has priced in a more than 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike this week (some data show as high as 92.4%), while the probability of holding rates steady is very low. This indicates that the market has already fully priced in the upcoming hike.
2. The key drivers behind the rate hike
The Federal Reserve faces substantial pressure to raise rates, mainly driven by the following factors:
Inflation remains stubbornly high: US August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, and the month-over-month increase in core CPI came in above expectations, indicating that inflation pressure has not yet been fully extinguished.
Energy price shocks: Driven by an escalation in the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices have surged significantly (breaking above $100 per barrel). Energy price increases have become a major force pushing inflation higher.
The labor market is still tight: August nonfarm payrolls added far more jobs than the market expected, dispelling concerns that employment deterioration would accelerate, and providing support for the Fed to further tighten policy.
Global central banks tightening in sync: The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have also successively signaled or implemented rate-hike actions, placing global liquidity under simultaneous tightening.
From the perspective of traditional transmission mechanisms, Fed rate hikes do exert downward pressure on gold:
Rising holding costs: Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. Rate hikes raise returns on risk-free assets such as US Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and prompting some capital to flow out of the gold market.
Pressure from a stronger dollar: Rate hikes typically attract global capital back to the United States, strengthening the US dollar index. Since international gold is priced in USD, dollar appreciation directly suppresses purchasing demand from holders of non-USD currencies, thereby weighing on gold prices.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
1. Market expectations are highly consistent
According to CME’s FedWatch tool data (the instrument used by futures traders to bet on the Fed’s moves), the market has priced in a more than 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike this week (some data show as high as 92.4%), while the probability of holding rates steady is very low. This indicates that the market has already fully priced in the upcoming hike.
2. The key drivers behind the rate hike
The Federal Reserve faces substantial pressure to raise rates, mainly driven by the following factors:
Inflation remains stubbornly high: US August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, and the month-over-month increase in core CPI came in above expectations, indicating that inflation pressure has not yet been fully extinguished.
Energy price shocks: Driven by an escalation in the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices have surged significantly (breaking above $100 per barrel). Energy price increases have become a major force pushing inflation higher.
The labor market is still tight: August nonfarm payrolls added far more jobs than the market expected, dispelling concerns that employment deterioration would accelerate, and providing support for the Fed to further tighten policy.
Global central banks tightening in sync: The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have also successively signaled or implemented rate-hike actions, placing global liquidity under simultaneous tightening.
From the perspective of traditional transmission mechanisms, Fed rate hikes do exert downward pressure on gold:
Rising holding costs: Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. Rate hikes raise returns on risk-free assets such as US Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and prompting some capital to flow out of the gold market.
Pressure from a stronger dollar: Rate hikes typically attract global capital back to the United States, strengthening the US dollar index. Since international gold is priced in USD, dollar appreciation directly suppresses purchasing demand from holders of non-USD currencies, thereby weighing on gold prices.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
