Starry 9.15 Evening Gold Market Analysis
On the 4-hour timeframe: after pushing up to 4434, the price continued to range and then declined. The highs have been repeatedly moving lower, forming a ranging-to-downward structure. After a dip to 4253, there was a slight rebound to repair, and the current quote is 4279. The rebound momentum is rather weak. The larger timeframe bearish structure remains unchanged—this is merely a minor pause during a downtrend.
Bearish factors:
1. The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken above 5.04%, reaching the highest level since 2023, causing a sharp increase in the cost of holding gold
2. The probability of a September rate hike has risen to 92.4%. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have collectively revised their forecasts to expect a rate hike this week
3. Brent crude has broken through 108 USD, strengthening the rate-hike logic via energy inflation
Bullish factors:
1. The People’s Bank of China has been buying gold for 22 consecutive months; in August it added about 20 tons
2. UBS expects the likelihood of further gold price increases to rise by year-end, and central bank gold-buying demand remains steady
Key variable: The FOMC interest-rate decision meeting is currently underway. The decision will be released early Thursday Beijing time. The market has already priced in the rate hike; watch whether the wording in the statement releases a “one-off adjustment” signal.
Strategy reference:
Resistance 4317
Strong resistance 4344
Support 4261
Key support 4253
Invalidation line 4344
Entry:
Go short on the rebound at 4310–4317; stop loss 4345; targets 4270 → 4253
Summary
The probability of a rate hike is nearing 92%, US Treasury yields have broken above 5%, and the bearish-led structure is clear. 4253 is the key support—if it breaks, it will further open downside room. Until 4344 is firmly regained, maintain the high-short bias. Before the FOMC results are released, pay attention to position management and strictly follow stop-loss rules. $XAU
#美联储加息是否已成定局 #费城半导体指数跌5.9%
On the 4-hour timeframe: after pushing up to 4434, the price continued to range and then declined. The highs have been repeatedly moving lower, forming a ranging-to-downward structure. After a dip to 4253, there was a slight rebound to repair, and the current quote is 4279. The rebound momentum is rather weak. The larger timeframe bearish structure remains unchanged—this is merely a minor pause during a downtrend.
Bearish factors:
1. The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken above 5.04%, reaching the highest level since 2023, causing a sharp increase in the cost of holding gold
2. The probability of a September rate hike has risen to 92.4%. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have collectively revised their forecasts to expect a rate hike this week
3. Brent crude has broken through 108 USD, strengthening the rate-hike logic via energy inflation
Bullish factors:
1. The People’s Bank of China has been buying gold for 22 consecutive months; in August it added about 20 tons
2. UBS expects the likelihood of further gold price increases to rise by year-end, and central bank gold-buying demand remains steady
Key variable: The FOMC interest-rate decision meeting is currently underway. The decision will be released early Thursday Beijing time. The market has already priced in the rate hike; watch whether the wording in the statement releases a “one-off adjustment” signal.
Strategy reference:
Resistance 4317
Strong resistance 4344
Support 4261
Key support 4253
Invalidation line 4344
Entry:
Go short on the rebound at 4310–4317; stop loss 4345; targets 4270 → 4253
Summary
The probability of a rate hike is nearing 92%, US Treasury yields have broken above 5%, and the bearish-led structure is clear. 4253 is the key support—if it breaks, it will further open downside room. Until 4344 is firmly regained, maintain the high-short bias. Before the FOMC results are released, pay attention to position management and strictly follow stop-loss rules. $XAU
#美联储加息是否已成定局 #费城半导体指数跌5.9%
