September track record since 2008: 9 green, 8 red. Basically a coin flip.
Yet people still obsess over "September is always bad" narratives by cherry-picking data back to 1950 or whatever. If you're trading off seasonality patterns from the Taft administration, you're doing astrology, not analysis.
Recent regime matters more than century-old averages. Post-GFC market structure, liquidity conditions, and Fed behavior are completely different. Stop backtesting the horse-and-buggy era.
Yet people still obsess over "September is always bad" narratives by cherry-picking data back to 1950 or whatever. If you're trading off seasonality patterns from the Taft administration, you're doing astrology, not analysis.
Recent regime matters more than century-old averages. Post-GFC market structure, liquidity conditions, and Fed behavior are completely different. Stop backtesting the horse-and-buggy era.
