Still writing today’s 60-ticket mark in the morning. Overnight, the prediction market chart broke down a notch first. On Polymarket, “this year’s law” fell from about 34% at Monday’s peak to around 18%; Grayscale was still calling during the day for something close to 30%.

The resistance has been spelled out very specifically. A joint letter from eight bank associations asks to tighten stablecoin rewards, complaining that the “circuit breaker” should only be triggered after deposits run out. Led by the New York State attorney general, along with 17 other state attorneys general, they warn that federal overreach will weaken their ability to investigate fraud. With 53 seats for the Republicans, they still need to pull in Democrats. At 2:15 p.m. Eastern, there’s a procedural vote—only after it passes will the debate begin; it doesn’t mean the law is already set in stone.

The other side has a different set of criteria at the mouth. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said it plainly on Monday: Congress should pass CLARITY as soon as possible, but whether it passes or not, the agency will still move forward with regulation this term. He laid out three items: rules for issuing crypto assets, updates to the transfer-agent rules (making the blockchain function as the equity ledger), and clarification of custody rules. The implication is that if Congress gets stuck, the SEC can still write the rules itself.

Even today, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein remains on the bullish side, believing that negotiation progress could be better than what the market has priced in. It forecasts an 18% move, with investment banks leaning bullish—while the two sides don’t line up.

Here’s the takeaway in one line: tonight, watch the outcome of 60 votes, but don’t pin the entire regulatory narrative on that one vote. If the motion passes, it only opens debate; if it fails, the SEC’s three items will still be pushed forward. Bitcoin is currently around $77.8k, touched about $79.6k earlier in the day, and there’s an FOMC meeting tomorrow—so volatility will stack on top of everything else.

#CLARITY #SEC #BTC #Crypto regulation

Not investment advice.