The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday released its annual report, officially issuing a warning that the global trading system is at a critical and urgent turning point and calling on member countries to carry out sweeping reforms.
Based on simulations by the WTO’s economic experts, the wave of trade protectionism, the rise of separate industrial policies, and geopolitical tensions among major powers are directly threatening economic growth. If the world were to fracture into opposing blocs, global GDP is forecast to fall by 5.1% and exports by 18.6% by 2050. Even if the multilateral mechanism were to collapse completely, GDP losses could reach as much as 6.9%, with exports dropping by nearly 27%; among these, developing economies would be the most severely affected.
A fragmented economic outlook would mean broken global supply chains, with logistics costs and core inflation remaining high for a prolonged period. This would make it difficult for central banks to loosen monetary policy aggressively, putting significant pressure on the bond market, equities, and the valuation of traditional assets.
For the crypto market, the split between the monetary and traditional trade systems is a double-edged sword. In the short term, defensive sentiment and concerns about a macroeconomic downturn could curb speculative capital flows into risk assets.
Based on simulations by the WTO’s economic experts, the wave of trade protectionism, the rise of separate industrial policies, and geopolitical tensions among major powers are directly threatening economic growth. If the world were to fracture into opposing blocs, global GDP is forecast to fall by 5.1% and exports by 18.6% by 2050. Even if the multilateral mechanism were to collapse completely, GDP losses could reach as much as 6.9%, with exports dropping by nearly 27%; among these, developing economies would be the most severely affected.
A fragmented economic outlook would mean broken global supply chains, with logistics costs and core inflation remaining high for a prolonged period. This would make it difficult for central banks to loosen monetary policy aggressively, putting significant pressure on the bond market, equities, and the valuation of traditional assets.
For the crypto market, the split between the monetary and traditional trade systems is a double-edged sword. In the short term, defensive sentiment and concerns about a macroeconomic downturn could curb speculative capital flows into risk assets.