Say one honest judgment—got it wrong.
On September 11th, BTC surged from 76,500 to 79,890, but closed the day at 77,225. It left a huge upper wick. At the time, my first reaction was, “A breakout attempt failed, but the bulls are still in control.” Looking back, this was textbook-level resistance rejection. Touch 79,890 and it gets slammed back. The closing price was 2,600 points away from the session high—this isn’t a “failed breakout attempt”; it’s someone frantically dumping above 79,000.
From September 12th to 13th, it moved sideways around 77,000–77,500. Trading volume was cut in half directly (from 19,000 down to 8,000, then down to 7,000). I thought, “Low-volume consolidation is building up energy”—but I was wrong. Low-volume consolidation after two failed pushes upward isn’t accumulation; it’s distribution. The operator was slowly offloading up there while retail traders were still waiting for the breakout.
Then on September 14th, BTC again climbed from 76,800 to 79,600. I nearly shouted, “Second breakout is here—80K is within reach.” But look at the close: the high at 79,600, and it closed at 78,189. Another upper wick—exactly like September 11th. Two attempts to break above 80,000 both got rejected back—this is a clear pattern of two failed top tests. Yet I read it as a bullish counterattack.
As a result, today, September 15th, the price dropped straight from 78,189 back to 76,700, swallowing up yesterday’s entire gain. The “breakout” has completely failed.
Looking back, I made three mistakes:
1. I only looked at the highest price and ignored the close. On September 11th and 14th, the upper wicks on both candles exceeded 1,500 points, and the closing price was far below the high. That’s a signal of selling pressure, not a bullish signal. I got excited by the push into the 79,000+ area and ignored that the close reflects the market’s real attitude.
2. I interpreted the two failed top tests as breakout buildup. 79,890 and 79,600—both the highs were trending down, and the lows were also trending down (76,500 → 76,388). This is a descending channel, not an ascending triangle. I got the call right that the price was moving in a range, but I misread the direction of that range.
3. Emotion took over. When you see a fast rally, you want to go long—that’s the most basic FOMO. Both times were driven by emotion during the surge, and only afterward did I calm down and look at the chart pattern. Plainly put: I know to be calm during analysis, but when placing orders I can’t control myself.
How I’ll change next time:
- Don’t make a judgment until the candle is closed. If the upper wick is more than 2x the body, default to rejection—that isn’t a breakout
- Two failed top tests + lower highs = a bearish signal, not “it’ll break on the third time anyway”
- Add a “calm delay”: after seeing a fast rally, wait 4 hours first, decide based on the close—not in the middle of the candle
$BTC #交易复盘 #Blue桉VS释怀鸟
Have you had similar mistakes lately?
On September 11th, BTC surged from 76,500 to 79,890, but closed the day at 77,225. It left a huge upper wick. At the time, my first reaction was, “A breakout attempt failed, but the bulls are still in control.” Looking back, this was textbook-level resistance rejection. Touch 79,890 and it gets slammed back. The closing price was 2,600 points away from the session high—this isn’t a “failed breakout attempt”; it’s someone frantically dumping above 79,000.
From September 12th to 13th, it moved sideways around 77,000–77,500. Trading volume was cut in half directly (from 19,000 down to 8,000, then down to 7,000). I thought, “Low-volume consolidation is building up energy”—but I was wrong. Low-volume consolidation after two failed pushes upward isn’t accumulation; it’s distribution. The operator was slowly offloading up there while retail traders were still waiting for the breakout.
Then on September 14th, BTC again climbed from 76,800 to 79,600. I nearly shouted, “Second breakout is here—80K is within reach.” But look at the close: the high at 79,600, and it closed at 78,189. Another upper wick—exactly like September 11th. Two attempts to break above 80,000 both got rejected back—this is a clear pattern of two failed top tests. Yet I read it as a bullish counterattack.
As a result, today, September 15th, the price dropped straight from 78,189 back to 76,700, swallowing up yesterday’s entire gain. The “breakout” has completely failed.
Looking back, I made three mistakes:
1. I only looked at the highest price and ignored the close. On September 11th and 14th, the upper wicks on both candles exceeded 1,500 points, and the closing price was far below the high. That’s a signal of selling pressure, not a bullish signal. I got excited by the push into the 79,000+ area and ignored that the close reflects the market’s real attitude.
2. I interpreted the two failed top tests as breakout buildup. 79,890 and 79,600—both the highs were trending down, and the lows were also trending down (76,500 → 76,388). This is a descending channel, not an ascending triangle. I got the call right that the price was moving in a range, but I misread the direction of that range.
3. Emotion took over. When you see a fast rally, you want to go long—that’s the most basic FOMO. Both times were driven by emotion during the surge, and only afterward did I calm down and look at the chart pattern. Plainly put: I know to be calm during analysis, but when placing orders I can’t control myself.
How I’ll change next time:
- Don’t make a judgment until the candle is closed. If the upper wick is more than 2x the body, default to rejection—that isn’t a breakout
- Two failed top tests + lower highs = a bearish signal, not “it’ll break on the third time anyway”
- Add a “calm delay”: after seeing a fast rally, wait 4 hours first, decide based on the close—not in the middle of the candle
$BTC #交易复盘 #Blue桉VS释怀鸟
Have you had similar mistakes lately?