Track Watch｜SOL: How long can the second growth of an old public-chain veteran last?
Over the past week, SOL has once again moved above the $100 mark, returning to the center of market attention. Compared with the earlier breakout rally that surged from around $20, today’s SOL looks more like it is rotating and consolidating at high levels while confirming a new mid-term trend. The current price is about $102.26, up roughly 2.15% over the past 24 hours. Performance among major coins is fairly steady, yet it reveals some interesting structural signals.
In terms of price and volatility, SOL has formed a clear rotation range around $100: the $95–98 area below has been defended multiple times by buy-side support, while the $108–112 zone above is dense with prior high-bid bag holders and short-term profit-takers. In recent trading, when the price pulled back near $100, volume increased noticeably; but when it broke above $105, the volume was relatively insufficient. This suggests that incremental capital is not aggressively chasing the upside—instead, the rhythm is more like “buy the dips and hold through consolidation.”
From the perspective of capital structure, the pacing between spot and derivatives is starting to become more balanced. In the early high-volatility phase, leveraged positions in perpetual contracts were the main driver, with frequent liquidation data and funding rates staying at elevated levels. Recently, funding has been closer to neutral. The tug-of-war between long and short with leverage has become more rational. Although open interest remains relatively high, the liquidation amounts have dropped significantly, indicating that short-term sentiment has cooled and trading has shifted more toward mid-term direction rather than short-term excitement. For spot investors, this kind of structure often implies that the trend is more sustainable than during extreme surges.
On the narrative front, SOL is still centered on “high-performance public chain + active DeFi/on-chain trading.” On the one hand, its high TPS and comparatively low gas fees continue to support memes, high-frequency on-chain trading, and the launch of new projects. On the other hand, high-quality protocols in the ecosystem have evolved from merely telling stories to generating real on-chain revenue on an ongoing basis. While it may not offer the same kind of explosive 10x or 50x upside as the early days, the combination of “real use cases, strong developer stickiness, and decent user retention” is enough to support the mid-to-long-term valuation base.
Overall, at the current price level, SOL looks more like a track leader entering the “mid-stage” of the race: there is no extreme discount in the short term, nor is it obviously severely overvalued. It may suit investors who already recognize the public-chain positioning and can tolerate high volatility to manage mid-to-long-term positions, rather than treating it as a short-term tool to get rich overnight. For most retail investors, a more reasonable strategy would be to scale in gradually, set a 20%–30% drawdown tolerance in advance, and accept that the holding period may be measured in quarters or even years.
Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile; historical gains do not indicate future performance. The public-chain track faces risks of technical iteration and competition chain substitution. The prices and percentage changes mentioned in this article are based on publicly available data at the time of writing, used only for market observation, and do not constitute any investment advice or guarantee of returns.
Over the past week, SOL has once again moved above the $100 mark, returning to the center of market attention. Compared with the earlier breakout rally that surged from around $20, today’s SOL looks more like it is rotating and consolidating at high levels while confirming a new mid-term trend. The current price is about $102.26, up roughly 2.15% over the past 24 hours. Performance among major coins is fairly steady, yet it reveals some interesting structural signals.
In terms of price and volatility, SOL has formed a clear rotation range around $100: the $95–98 area below has been defended multiple times by buy-side support, while the $108–112 zone above is dense with prior high-bid bag holders and short-term profit-takers. In recent trading, when the price pulled back near $100, volume increased noticeably; but when it broke above $105, the volume was relatively insufficient. This suggests that incremental capital is not aggressively chasing the upside—instead, the rhythm is more like “buy the dips and hold through consolidation.”
From the perspective of capital structure, the pacing between spot and derivatives is starting to become more balanced. In the early high-volatility phase, leveraged positions in perpetual contracts were the main driver, with frequent liquidation data and funding rates staying at elevated levels. Recently, funding has been closer to neutral. The tug-of-war between long and short with leverage has become more rational. Although open interest remains relatively high, the liquidation amounts have dropped significantly, indicating that short-term sentiment has cooled and trading has shifted more toward mid-term direction rather than short-term excitement. For spot investors, this kind of structure often implies that the trend is more sustainable than during extreme surges.
On the narrative front, SOL is still centered on “high-performance public chain + active DeFi/on-chain trading.” On the one hand, its high TPS and comparatively low gas fees continue to support memes, high-frequency on-chain trading, and the launch of new projects. On the other hand, high-quality protocols in the ecosystem have evolved from merely telling stories to generating real on-chain revenue on an ongoing basis. While it may not offer the same kind of explosive 10x or 50x upside as the early days, the combination of “real use cases, strong developer stickiness, and decent user retention” is enough to support the mid-to-long-term valuation base.
Overall, at the current price level, SOL looks more like a track leader entering the “mid-stage” of the race: there is no extreme discount in the short term, nor is it obviously severely overvalued. It may suit investors who already recognize the public-chain positioning and can tolerate high volatility to manage mid-to-long-term positions, rather than treating it as a short-term tool to get rich overnight. For most retail investors, a more reasonable strategy would be to scale in gradually, set a 20%–30% drawdown tolerance in advance, and accept that the holding period may be measured in quarters or even years.
Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile; historical gains do not indicate future performance. The public-chain track faces risks of technical iteration and competition chain substitution. The prices and percentage changes mentioned in this article are based on publicly available data at the time of writing, used only for market observation, and do not constitute any investment advice or guarantee of returns.