The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates is set for Wednesday, and the rate futures pricing has already pushed the probability of a rate hike to 87%—the pricing itself shows just how much the market is worried about inflation, and for $BTC this week is a real pressure test. What’s even more worth pondering is the view of Custodia Bank founder Caitlin Long: she believes that it’s no longer the Federal Reserve that truly controls the market liquidity switch; it’s the U.S. Treasury instead. The opening and closing of Treasury accounts determines how tight or loose the U.S. dollar is more directly than the federal funds rate. Following this logic, rate hikes themselves may not immediately wipe out risk assets, but if the Treasury simultaneously pulls liquidity out, then under this double squeeze, Bitcoin is unlikely to be spared. Instead of trying to guess the direction, it’s better to watch two things: the wording in the FOMC statement regarding inflation, and changes in the Treasury account balance. Also, don’t forget that 87% pricing leaves virtually no room for surprises—if there’s no rate hike, the rebound could be stronger than you might expect. How would you bet?