At 2 a.m. this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will reveal its interest rate decision. A rate hike is now a highly likely event, and the market’s real focus has shifted to “how much to raise” and “how many more times to hike afterward.” Wall Street is clearly divided over the pace of subsequent tightening:
The hawks (including Deutsche Bank, TD Securities, etc.) believe inflation risks remain very high and expect further rate hikes within the year—possibly even in September, December, and again in March next year in consecutive moves.
The doves (such as Goldman Sachs) point out that the August CPI distortion mainly stems from one-off factors like tariffs and energy. The underlying trend in core inflation is still cooling, and they expect there may be only one more hike for the rest of the year.
The key will be the economic projections update (SEP) and the rate dot plot from this meeting. Institutions generally expect the Fed to noticeably raise its inflation expectations and the median interest rate—this will directly determine the intensity of the subsequent tightening.
The current macro environment is overall hawkish: inflation remains stubbornly high, oil prices are nearing $100, and the Fed chair is taking a hardline stance—there is little uncertainty about the policy direction.
#美联储利率决议即将公布
The hawks (including Deutsche Bank, TD Securities, etc.) believe inflation risks remain very high and expect further rate hikes within the year—possibly even in September, December, and again in March next year in consecutive moves.
The doves (such as Goldman Sachs) point out that the August CPI distortion mainly stems from one-off factors like tariffs and energy. The underlying trend in core inflation is still cooling, and they expect there may be only one more hike for the rest of the year.
The key will be the economic projections update (SEP) and the rate dot plot from this meeting. Institutions generally expect the Fed to noticeably raise its inflation expectations and the median interest rate—this will directly determine the intensity of the subsequent tightening.
The current macro environment is overall hawkish: inflation remains stubbornly high, oil prices are nearing $100, and the Fed chair is taking a hardline stance—there is little uncertainty about the policy direction.
#美联储利率决议即将公布
