$BTC What I’m least willing to do now is simplify this FOMC decision into: “stocks fall if they hike, and rise if they don’t.”
In August, the US core CPI year over year fell to 2.4%, but the month over month figure rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. These two sets of data send signals that don’t match. The market also still needs to digest the Fed’s stance on future interest rates. Just predicting the outcome this time doesn’t necessarily mean you can predict the price reaction.
The decision will be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. For BTC, I care more about whether the low holds after the news comes out. If the guidance turns out hawkish, yet the price no longer makes new lows, that’s when the left-side clue is worth taking seriously.
At the moment, I’m keeping a defensive stance. The rebound back toward nearly $80,000 was sold off again, and I still don’t have enough evidence to place an early bet that the bearish impact has already been fully priced in.
In August, the US core CPI year over year fell to 2.4%, but the month over month figure rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. These two sets of data send signals that don’t match. The market also still needs to digest the Fed’s stance on future interest rates. Just predicting the outcome this time doesn’t necessarily mean you can predict the price reaction.
The decision will be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. For BTC, I care more about whether the low holds after the news comes out. If the guidance turns out hawkish, yet the price no longer makes new lows, that’s when the left-side clue is worth taking seriously.
At the moment, I’m keeping a defensive stance. The rebound back toward nearly $80,000 was sold off again, and I still don’t have enough evidence to place an early bet that the bearish impact has already been fully priced in.