Everyone, let’s first look at two pieces of information:
At 10:00 PM on the 16th, the United States released information on whether the court approved the Bitcoin reserve court ruling;
At 2:00 AM on February 17, interest rate adjustment information will be released.
Are they coming so close together? It’s annoying—going long or going short is all inappropriate...
We don’t gamble, that’s something kids do. We can analyze to find the probabilities—that’s what we should do—speculation!
First, let’s look at the simple situation:
(1) The court approves and there is no rate hike—bullish, prices rise;
(2) The court does not approve and there is a rate hike—bearish, prices fall;
A slightly more complicated situation:
(1) The court approves and raises interest rates — this means the U.S. starts gradually buying Bitcoin and the funds flow back to U.S. banks. Where does the money come from to buy coins? Since the funds flow back, it’s basically happening! Personally, I think this is intended to push money into the crypto market — bullish rise;
(2) The court does not approve and does not raise interest rates — the U.S. won’t expand its purchases of Bitcoin, but they also don’t sell either. Just treat it as if this matter was never brought up. And not raising rates is a big deal: a piece of news that was originally bearish suddenly turns bullish. Global assets are bound to surge, of course including Bitcoin — a bullish move leading to a rise.
In summary: three bullish signals and one bearish signal! Even a fool knows how to choose, right?
Let me emphasize: in the case where the court approves, the U.S. begins gradually purchasing Bitcoin. It should be said that this is bullish in the short term, but what about the next step — will the U.S. really keep buying? Or will they wait until the big bubble crashes and then buy with bloody chips?! This depends on the subsequent stance of the U.S. government… Stay tuned for later analysis!
【Gu Ben Investment, focused on the crypto圈 for seven years, annualized return of 5%, welcome to consult】