I compiled information on the possible effects of the approval of the Clarity Act tomorrow, September 15, and based on who has been following this process, here is what could happen in the cryptocurrency market.

If tomorrow (September 15) the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (cloture vote) is successfully approved, the large-cap crypto assets led by Ethereum (ETH) and XRP will likely experience a short-term emotional rebound, while Bitcoin (BTC) will see a smaller increase. If the vote is not approved, the short-term market will face a correction, but some analysts believe this could be an "accumulation opportunity" rather than a fundamental deterioration. In terms of sectors, real-world assets (RWA) such as ONDO and LINK, as well as the major Layer-1s, are more sensitive to positive news; whereas Bitcoin, because its commodity attribute is already relatively clear, has less upward elasticity compared to altcoins.

📈 If the vote passes: Who will rebound the most?

The market’s focus is not whether the overall “crypto market” will go up, but which assets have higher elasticity. Because altcoins have smaller market capitalizations, the same inflow volume of capital generates a larger percentage increase.

· Ethereum (ETH): The primary beneficiary asset. Various analysts and AI institutions believe that if the bill advances, ETH has a higher probability of rising than BTC. The reason is that the bill will greatly reduce uncertainty about whether ETH will be classified as a “security,” opening the door for entry by traditional institutions. Some analysts see a $5,000 price target.

· XRP: Highly regulation-sensitive asset. Because Ripple and XRP have a long history of legal disputes with the SEC, regulatory clarification represents a direct correction of expectations. Some analysts believe that if it is approved, XRP will “soar to the clouds,” with key resistance levels observed between $1.65–$1.78.

· Solana (SOL): Beneficiary of the ETF pathway. Approval of the bill could open the door to a spot Solana ETF. It is predicted that if it is approved, SOL could rise over the next 1–4 weeks to $100–$120.

· Real-world assets (RWA): Relatively pure gains. Tokenization-related protocols for traditional assets, such as ONDO, LINK, and QNT, are considered the biggest beneficiaries of “capital release” if the bill is approved, because they provide off-chain data services and the infrastructure needed by institutions.

📉 If the vote is not approved: Is it an opportunity or the end?

The September 15 vote is a procedural vote, requiring 60 votes to overcome the hurdle. Currently, Republicans only have 53 seats, so they need at least 7 Democrats to cross party lines. The approval odds in the prediction market are currently only about 30%.

· Short-term pressure: The market has already priced in some approval expectations, so if the vote fails, the price of BTC could fall in the short term to the $55,000 area; ETH and other altcoins will face more severe selling pressure.

· Logic in the medium and long term: Some analysts believe that even if the legislation is not passed, the SEC and the CFTC could still accelerate the establishment of rules, so the regulatory framework will eventually become clearer. Therefore, a short-term drop can be considered an accumulation signal (accumulation). However, it should be noted that if the bill is postponed to 2027, narratives in the privacy and payments sectors may be affected more adversely (for example, facing stricter AML scrutiny).