On Saturday we wrote that the risk into Wednesday wasn't the hike — it was whether yields accept above 5% and whether crude reclaims the level it just rejected. Both moved within 48 hours.
Brent pushed to $109 as Gulf tensions intensified. The 10-year touched 5% for the first time since 2023. Mortgage rates are at their highest in over a year.
One distinction matters. The yield touched 5%; it has not accepted above it. A print is not acceptance. That difference is the entire question into Wednesday, and it's why we said the hike itself carries no information — it's the framing afterward that does.
Equities held up better than the headlines suggest. The index fell modestly while more constituents rose than fell. This was rotation out of AI after industry leaders called for a safety slowdown, not a broad breakdown. Worth separating: a crowded trade unwinding is not the same event as a market losing support.
$BTC near 79,280, 31% retraced on the grid we published. Rising while equities fell and yields spiked — the correlation that defined the summer is loose this week. We don't read that as strength yet. The 83–87k resistance is still untested, and 74,136 remains the level below.
This week's trades
ZEC — second short of the same move, closed into target for over 10%. Same structure as the first: a level, confirmation of rejection, a written invalidation, a defined target. The method repeats; the opinion doesn't.
Re-entered long AVAX.
Current book: a long book and a BTC short of broadly similar size, the rest cash.
Disclosure: we are short BTC while writing the above. The framework was published before the position, and the position doesn't change it.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#bitcoin #BTC #Macro #FederalReserve #Oil
Brent pushed to $109 as Gulf tensions intensified. The 10-year touched 5% for the first time since 2023. Mortgage rates are at their highest in over a year.
One distinction matters. The yield touched 5%; it has not accepted above it. A print is not acceptance. That difference is the entire question into Wednesday, and it's why we said the hike itself carries no information — it's the framing afterward that does.
Equities held up better than the headlines suggest. The index fell modestly while more constituents rose than fell. This was rotation out of AI after industry leaders called for a safety slowdown, not a broad breakdown. Worth separating: a crowded trade unwinding is not the same event as a market losing support.
$BTC near 79,280, 31% retraced on the grid we published. Rising while equities fell and yields spiked — the correlation that defined the summer is loose this week. We don't read that as strength yet. The 83–87k resistance is still untested, and 74,136 remains the level below.
This week's trades
ZEC — second short of the same move, closed into target for over 10%. Same structure as the first: a level, confirmation of rejection, a written invalidation, a defined target. The method repeats; the opinion doesn't.
Re-entered long AVAX.
Current book: a long book and a BTC short of broadly similar size, the rest cash.
Disclosure: we are short BTC while writing the above. The framework was published before the position, and the position doesn't change it.
Open positions and full trade history since inception: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTech
Levels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
#bitcoin #BTC #Macro #FederalReserve #Oil
