#54% chance of a rate hike Yet Bitcoin touches 80,000
$BTC quotes $79,206, up 2.4% in 24 hours—only the last eight hundred dollars away from $80,000. At this point, it lines up perfectly with the eve of the Fed’s policy meeting.
The probability of a rate hike has risen to 54%; in theory, risk assets should be shrinking back at a time like this. Instead, Bitcoin isn’t pulling back—it’s pushing higher. $ETH has risen to $2,542; $SOL quotes $103, up 2.4%.
Gold tokens are moving in the opposite direction. PAXG is quoted at $4,318, while XAUT is quoted at $4,313—both down 0.8%. Flight to safety is fading, while risk assets are getting chased—this picture is rather tangled.
At the end of the day, it comes down to the same line: the 54% rate-hike probability itself is the biggest disagreement. Some people bet that the decision will be a positive catalyst and get in early; others wait for the dot plot to come out before making their move.
What I’m thinking about is something else: if there really is a rate hike, can Bitcoin still hold steady above $80,000? Which scenario do you trust more?
$BTC quotes $79,206, up 2.4% in 24 hours—only the last eight hundred dollars away from $80,000. At this point, it lines up perfectly with the eve of the Fed’s policy meeting.
The probability of a rate hike has risen to 54%; in theory, risk assets should be shrinking back at a time like this. Instead, Bitcoin isn’t pulling back—it’s pushing higher. $ETH has risen to $2,542; $SOL quotes $103, up 2.4%.
Gold tokens are moving in the opposite direction. PAXG is quoted at $4,318, while XAUT is quoted at $4,313—both down 0.8%. Flight to safety is fading, while risk assets are getting chased—this picture is rather tangled.
At the end of the day, it comes down to the same line: the 54% rate-hike probability itself is the biggest disagreement. Some people bet that the decision will be a positive catalyst and get in early; others wait for the dot plot to come out before making their move.
What I’m thinking about is something else: if there really is a rate hike, can Bitcoin still hold steady above $80,000? Which scenario do you trust more?