【Calling the bull market a week ago, now you’re scared?】
BTC has climbed back a bit from $ 79000—up about 2.3% today, looks pretty good.
But take another look: over the past 7 days, it’s still -0.1% overall. A week ago it was $ 79127; a week later it’s still $ 79127. It’s gone up about nothing.
What’s this called? It’s “give you a little color, then keep dragging things out.” I saw this trick back in 2017. The main players don’t mean they can’t push higher—they push just enough to give you a sense of opportunity, and then they dump on you after you’ve jumped in.
Sentiment data tells an even clearer story. Today’s FNG is 57, the weekly average is 63, and it’s still trending downward. Sentiment is cooling off, yet the price is hovering around relatively high levels—that’s not a strong signal. That’s “hard撑ing” (holding up) rather than strength.
Support is 74910, resistance is 80567. Right now it’s just grinding in the middle. Within the range, I’m inclined to watch and not chase longs, and not rush to bottom-fish.
Some people will say, “After a 37% pullback from the ATH, isn’t this a value zone?” That’s not wrong. But “value zone” doesn’t mean it will rise immediately. It might still grind for another three to six months. Can you withstand it? I’ve been through it—back in 2021 I made a little money, thought I was the second coming of Buffett, and then I gave it all back. I can’t say “this time is different.” I can only say, “I’ve seen this script.”
The FED holds an interest rate meeting tomorrow, and the CLARITY Act is also waiting for a vote in the Senate. Until the results come out, the market will most likely be treading lightly. In times like this, it’s better not to move than to move randomly.
My position stays where it is—I’m not adding and not reducing. Even though I say I’m just watching, my hands are still itchy—but this time I really didn’t go in. The muscle memory of an old bag-holder is still there.
What’s your mindset right now? Will you move in this wave, or will you—like me—keep watching quietly first?
BTC has climbed back a bit from $ 79000—up about 2.3% today, looks pretty good.
But take another look: over the past 7 days, it’s still -0.1% overall. A week ago it was $ 79127; a week later it’s still $ 79127. It’s gone up about nothing.
What’s this called? It’s “give you a little color, then keep dragging things out.” I saw this trick back in 2017. The main players don’t mean they can’t push higher—they push just enough to give you a sense of opportunity, and then they dump on you after you’ve jumped in.
Sentiment data tells an even clearer story. Today’s FNG is 57, the weekly average is 63, and it’s still trending downward. Sentiment is cooling off, yet the price is hovering around relatively high levels—that’s not a strong signal. That’s “hard撑ing” (holding up) rather than strength.
Support is 74910, resistance is 80567. Right now it’s just grinding in the middle. Within the range, I’m inclined to watch and not chase longs, and not rush to bottom-fish.
Some people will say, “After a 37% pullback from the ATH, isn’t this a value zone?” That’s not wrong. But “value zone” doesn’t mean it will rise immediately. It might still grind for another three to six months. Can you withstand it? I’ve been through it—back in 2021 I made a little money, thought I was the second coming of Buffett, and then I gave it all back. I can’t say “this time is different.” I can only say, “I’ve seen this script.”
The FED holds an interest rate meeting tomorrow, and the CLARITY Act is also waiting for a vote in the Senate. Until the results come out, the market will most likely be treading lightly. In times like this, it’s better not to move than to move randomly.
My position stays where it is—I’m not adding and not reducing. Even though I say I’m just watching, my hands are still itchy—but this time I really didn’t go in. The muscle memory of an old bag-holder is still there.
What’s your mindset right now? Will you move in this wave, or will you—like me—keep watching quietly first?