#美联储加息概率升至89%
The market’s current expectations for a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC have already climbed to around 89%. The final answer will be on Wednesday.
So: If everyone knows a rate hike is coming, why hasn’t BTC just collapsed outright?
Because trading is never about “whether or not” there’s a rate hike.
It’s about: what the Fed will say after the hike.
📊 Right now, I’m focusing on three things:
① Can $BTC hold above 77K?
As long as 77K can remain steady, I won’t immediately turn bearish just because rate-hike expectations are rising.
② Can 80K break through?
80K is the position that bulls must reclaim right now.
If 80K breaks out on strong volume, market sentiment will improve noticeably.
Further targets to watch:
82K—83K.
③ The Fed’s remarks after the FOMC
This is what I’m truly paying attention to.
If there’s a 25bp hike, but the subsequent statements aren’t as hawkish as the market expects,
then “bad news already priced in” could actually become a catalyst for BTC to rise.
But if a 25bp hike and hawkish guidance show up together,
then you need to be careful—market may keep compressing valuations.
🍑 So my logic is very simple:
Hold 77K → continue observing the bulls.
Break above 80K → look for 82K—83K.
Hold 82K—83K → upside room opens up again.
But if:
77K breaks down → defend first on the short term.
I’m not going to panic just because the phrase “89% hike” shows up,
and I’m also not going to start chasing FOMO just because BTC rebounds.
When the market is truly dangerous, it’s often not when the news is the scariest—it’s when everyone thinks, “It’s definitely going to be fine.”
Over the next couple of days, I’d rather:
Wait for the data, wait for the FOMC, and wait for price confirmation.
Don’t try to guess the bottom, and don’t chase the top.
$BTC
The market’s current expectations for a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC have already climbed to around 89%. The final answer will be on Wednesday.
So: If everyone knows a rate hike is coming, why hasn’t BTC just collapsed outright?
Because trading is never about “whether or not” there’s a rate hike.
It’s about: what the Fed will say after the hike.
📊 Right now, I’m focusing on three things:
① Can $BTC hold above 77K?
As long as 77K can remain steady, I won’t immediately turn bearish just because rate-hike expectations are rising.
② Can 80K break through?
80K is the position that bulls must reclaim right now.
If 80K breaks out on strong volume, market sentiment will improve noticeably.
Further targets to watch:
82K—83K.
③ The Fed’s remarks after the FOMC
This is what I’m truly paying attention to.
If there’s a 25bp hike, but the subsequent statements aren’t as hawkish as the market expects,
then “bad news already priced in” could actually become a catalyst for BTC to rise.
But if a 25bp hike and hawkish guidance show up together,
then you need to be careful—market may keep compressing valuations.
🍑 So my logic is very simple:
Hold 77K → continue observing the bulls.
Break above 80K → look for 82K—83K.
Hold 82K—83K → upside room opens up again.
But if:
77K breaks down → defend first on the short term.
I’m not going to panic just because the phrase “89% hike” shows up,
and I’m also not going to start chasing FOMO just because BTC rebounds.
When the market is truly dangerous, it’s often not when the news is the scariest—it’s when everyone thinks, “It’s definitely going to be fine.”
Over the next couple of days, I’d rather:
Wait for the data, wait for the FOMC, and wait for price confirmation.
Don’t try to guess the bottom, and don’t chase the top.
$BTC