This week I’m making pancakes and Ethereum. Write down the three time recommendations in advance—especially early Thursday morning.
① September 16 (Wednesday) 20:30: U.S. Retail Sales
See whether Americans are still willing to spend. If consumption comes in clearly stronger than expected, it may give the Federal Reserve more confidence to maintain high interest rates and suppress rate-cut expectations. But weaker data isn’t necessarily bullish either—if it’s too weak, the market may worry about an economic recession.
② September 17 (Thursday) 02:00: FOMC Interest Rate Decision; 02:30: Chair’s Press Conference
This is the most important event this week. Besides whether they hike, cut, or keep rates unchanged, you also need to look at the dot plot—i.e., officials’ forecasts for future interest rates.
If the subsequent rate path is higher than what the market expects, the crypto market may face continued pressure. If the decision has already been priced in and the remarks are not that hawkish, there could also be a rebound after a negative catalyst is realized. Don’t just look at the first candle after the decision is released—the speech half an hour later could change the direction.
③ September 18 (Friday): Bank of Japan interest rate decision. The exact release time is not fixed
Why look at Japan’s rate decision as well? Because some funds borrow low-interest yen to invest in other assets. If the hike or the tone of the statement comes in stronger than expected, the yen could appreciate rapidly, and these funds might sell assets and repay yen-denominated debt—potentially spilling over into the crypto market. But a rate hike in line with expectations doesn’t necessarily mean a sell-off will occur.
This week, first see the outcome versus how much the expectations differ, then watch how U.S. Treasury yields, the yen, and crypto prices react. You can anticipate the direction in advance, but don’t take positions based on “must go up / must go down.”
#美联储会议 #BTC #ETH #宏观分析
① September 16 (Wednesday) 20:30: U.S. Retail Sales
See whether Americans are still willing to spend. If consumption comes in clearly stronger than expected, it may give the Federal Reserve more confidence to maintain high interest rates and suppress rate-cut expectations. But weaker data isn’t necessarily bullish either—if it’s too weak, the market may worry about an economic recession.
② September 17 (Thursday) 02:00: FOMC Interest Rate Decision; 02:30: Chair’s Press Conference
This is the most important event this week. Besides whether they hike, cut, or keep rates unchanged, you also need to look at the dot plot—i.e., officials’ forecasts for future interest rates.
If the subsequent rate path is higher than what the market expects, the crypto market may face continued pressure. If the decision has already been priced in and the remarks are not that hawkish, there could also be a rebound after a negative catalyst is realized. Don’t just look at the first candle after the decision is released—the speech half an hour later could change the direction.
③ September 18 (Friday): Bank of Japan interest rate decision. The exact release time is not fixed
Why look at Japan’s rate decision as well? Because some funds borrow low-interest yen to invest in other assets. If the hike or the tone of the statement comes in stronger than expected, the yen could appreciate rapidly, and these funds might sell assets and repay yen-denominated debt—potentially spilling over into the crypto market. But a rate hike in line with expectations doesn’t necessarily mean a sell-off will occur.
This week, first see the outcome versus how much the expectations differ, then watch how U.S. Treasury yields, the yen, and crypto prices react. You can anticipate the direction in advance, but don’t take positions based on “must go up / must go down.”
#美联储会议 #BTC #ETH #宏观分析
