#美联储加息概率升至89% 8月 core CPI came in above expectations; on top of rising energy prices, inflation reared its head again directly subdued big institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Market pricing for “higher-for-longer interest rates” was instantly pushed to the limit.
The capital logic is actually straightforward: as the risk-free rate rises, discount rates surge as well. The first to get squeezed are tech stocks with stretched valuations and highly leveraged assets. Capital will accelerate into U.S. Treasuries and high-dividend defensive sectors, while liquidity pressure in emerging markets spikes sharply.
As for the crypto market: since it is liquidity-sensitive, higher funding costs immediately lock down leverage capacity. With U.S. Treasury yields standing where they are, the yields of DeFi and low-quality altcoins lose their appeal, and in the short term they will still likely move in tandem with tech stocks as they pull back.
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The capital logic is actually straightforward: as the risk-free rate rises, discount rates surge as well. The first to get squeezed are tech stocks with stretched valuations and highly leveraged assets. Capital will accelerate into U.S. Treasuries and high-dividend defensive sectors, while liquidity pressure in emerging markets spikes sharply.
As for the crypto market: since it is liquidity-sensitive, higher funding costs immediately lock down leverage capacity. With U.S. Treasury yields standing where they are, the yields of DeFi and low-quality altcoins lose their appeal, and in the short term they will still likely move in tandem with tech stocks as they pull back.
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$MTL $BR $CAP
