To be honest, I’ve seen too many “accumulation” illusions. This time, $BTW gives me a pretty solid bearish feeling. As the market has moved to where it is now, I’d rather believe the structure than emotions—each rebound has less force than the last, and volume hasn’t caught up. This kind of “repair” looks more like making room for the next leg down, not like a real reversal.
First, let’s look at positioning. The position size has dropped by 30%. That’s not a small deal. Usually, when price falls and open interest/positions shrink significantly at the same time, it means longs are exiting passively and leverage is being cleared. People might say it’s a washout—master accumulation—but the problem is: for accumulation to work, someone has to take the other side and there needs to be volume to support it. During the rebounds, the trading volume is clearly weak, which shows buyers simply aren’t active. If the “boss” truly wanted to push it up, they wouldn’t let the board look this hollow.
This is the most important point for me: volume-price divergence. Now look at the structure. The gap and the dense trading zone left by the previous flash crash have turned into overhead resistance. Every time price tries to move higher, it gets pushed back. Swing highs keep stepping lower—that’s a typical downtrend continuation pattern, not a bottom. A true bottom should show features like a volume surge to stop the fall, followed by repeated grinding tests. But right now, that’s completely missing.
Once the rebound reaches this level, the risk-reward ratio simply doesn’t favor the longs. So my conclusion is straightforward: as long as the rebound can’t effectively expand volume to reclaim the overhead resistance zone, the direction is still down.
As positions keep shrinking and volume keeps drying up, the selloff is only a matter of time. I’m watching the strength and volume of the rebound—not how many points it has risen. With a board like this, the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is too low. Conversely, when rebounds lack momentum, the short opportunity is much clearer.
I’m not going to predict exact price points—the chart will answer that itself. What needs to happen now is to wait until it reveals its weakness even more completely.
Gaze at the vastness of the mountains and seas; observe the subtle changes of the market.
With Uncle Xiong, witness every cycle of gain and loss in the world.
#BTW
Click below to trade 👇
First, let’s look at positioning. The position size has dropped by 30%. That’s not a small deal. Usually, when price falls and open interest/positions shrink significantly at the same time, it means longs are exiting passively and leverage is being cleared. People might say it’s a washout—master accumulation—but the problem is: for accumulation to work, someone has to take the other side and there needs to be volume to support it. During the rebounds, the trading volume is clearly weak, which shows buyers simply aren’t active. If the “boss” truly wanted to push it up, they wouldn’t let the board look this hollow.
This is the most important point for me: volume-price divergence. Now look at the structure. The gap and the dense trading zone left by the previous flash crash have turned into overhead resistance. Every time price tries to move higher, it gets pushed back. Swing highs keep stepping lower—that’s a typical downtrend continuation pattern, not a bottom. A true bottom should show features like a volume surge to stop the fall, followed by repeated grinding tests. But right now, that’s completely missing.
Once the rebound reaches this level, the risk-reward ratio simply doesn’t favor the longs. So my conclusion is straightforward: as long as the rebound can’t effectively expand volume to reclaim the overhead resistance zone, the direction is still down.
As positions keep shrinking and volume keeps drying up, the selloff is only a matter of time. I’m watching the strength and volume of the rebound—not how many points it has risen. With a board like this, the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is too low. Conversely, when rebounds lack momentum, the short opportunity is much clearer.
I’m not going to predict exact price points—the chart will answer that itself. What needs to happen now is to wait until it reveals its weakness even more completely.
Gaze at the vastness of the mountains and seas; observe the subtle changes of the market.
With Uncle Xiong, witness every cycle of gain and loss in the world.
#BTW
Click below to trade 👇