Rate hike expectations hit the ceiling! Why Wall Street still isn’t bearish on the market?
Latest macro news as of September 14: The market’s expectation for the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps this week has risen to 87%, and it may mark the first rate hike in three years.
But the three major banks—Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan—are united in their view: a single rate hike won’t change the medium-term trend!
Historical data confirms: what truly triggers a U.S. stock bear market is economic contraction caused by sustained tightening; a one-time hike only creates a short-term sentiment disturbance.
At present, the market has already priced in multiple rate-hike expectations in advance. Combined with the fact that U.S. companies’ earnings and balance sheets remain stable, most of the negatives have effectively been dealt with.
Potential risks for the market:
1. Rising Treasury yields could trigger a 10% technical pullback in U.S. stocks;
2. If oil prices hold above $100, it will continue to push up inflation and suppress asset valuations.
Current market action: The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is approaching 5%. Nasdaq futures are pulling back first, and near-term market volatility will noticeably increase.
Key takeaway: Rate hikes ≠ going into a bear market. Expect short-term volatility and a “washout” before stabilization; focus on the economy and earnings in the medium term! Macro sentiment transmission is amplifying crypto market movements—be cautious of volatility in the short run, but there’s no need to be overly pessimistic about the trend! #比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元
Latest macro news as of September 14: The market’s expectation for the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps this week has risen to 87%, and it may mark the first rate hike in three years.
But the three major banks—Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan—are united in their view: a single rate hike won’t change the medium-term trend!
Historical data confirms: what truly triggers a U.S. stock bear market is economic contraction caused by sustained tightening; a one-time hike only creates a short-term sentiment disturbance.
At present, the market has already priced in multiple rate-hike expectations in advance. Combined with the fact that U.S. companies’ earnings and balance sheets remain stable, most of the negatives have effectively been dealt with.
Potential risks for the market:
1. Rising Treasury yields could trigger a 10% technical pullback in U.S. stocks;
2. If oil prices hold above $100, it will continue to push up inflation and suppress asset valuations.
Current market action: The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is approaching 5%. Nasdaq futures are pulling back first, and near-term market volatility will noticeably increase.
Key takeaway: Rate hikes ≠ going into a bear market. Expect short-term volatility and a “washout” before stabilization; focus on the economy and earnings in the medium term! Macro sentiment transmission is amplifying crypto market movements—be cautious of volatility in the short run, but there’s no need to be overly pessimistic about the trend! #比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元
