Super Week Eve: BTC at 77,000, tomorrow CLARITY clears the hurdle, the day after Warsh speaks up
📍 First, the macro is holding the blade down
A hotter-than-expected PPI, oil prices rebounding—markets have priced an 85%+ chance of an FOMC rate hike, with the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield at 4.97%. Risk assets are de-leveraging first. BTC is around 77.6k and ETH around 2,500—this isn’t a bottom; it’s “quiet before something big happens.”
📍 Tomorrow’s #1 explosive catalyst: the CLARITY bill passage
The Senate Republican Party has released the final version. Trump has agreed to about 80% of the moral provisions (including stablecoin circuit breakers and a narrower BRCA). The chair of the banking committee said, “It’s time to pass it.” Market forecasts have the probability of passing within the year rising to 34%, with the debate vote ending on Tuesday (tomorrow). Whether it passes or not, “who regulates crypto—SEC or CFTC?” has finally made it onto the full Senate debate. It’s a boost for the compliance narrative around ETH, and for alts it’s a “passport” dividing line.
📍 Institutional money is quietly relocating
Last week, spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million (BlackRock’s ETHA contributed $140 million), with inflows continuing for four straight weeks. By contrast, BTC ETFs saw weekly net outflows. This isn’t bearish crypto—it’s “the big cake is taking a breather, while the small cake bets on regulatory upside.” The trail of money moving into ETH is getting more and more obvious.
📍 The leverage weekend squeeze was just done
CPI night wiped out shorts, the weekend washed out longs. In the last 24 hours, long positions were liquidated for 300 million+.
Now, anyone betting a full 10x position on the FOMC is basically paying tuition for market makers.
📍 Wrap-up
This week’s sequence: 9/15 CLARITY vote → 9/16 FOMC decision + the Warsh press conference.
Hawkish tone + bill gridlock → BTC tests 75k
Looser wording / bill progress → ETH moves first to surge toward 2,600, BTC follows up to 83k
Everything plays ping-pong → grind from 76k to 79k into month-end
Super Week Eve—don’t pretend you’ve figured it out, and don’t catch falling knives. Position size is more valuable than opinions; patience is more valuable than noise.
If CLARITY can’t pass with 60 votes tomorrow, which do you like more to react first—BTC or ETH?
BTC ETH
📍 First, the macro is holding the blade down
A hotter-than-expected PPI, oil prices rebounding—markets have priced an 85%+ chance of an FOMC rate hike, with the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield at 4.97%. Risk assets are de-leveraging first. BTC is around 77.6k and ETH around 2,500—this isn’t a bottom; it’s “quiet before something big happens.”
📍 Tomorrow’s #1 explosive catalyst: the CLARITY bill passage
The Senate Republican Party has released the final version. Trump has agreed to about 80% of the moral provisions (including stablecoin circuit breakers and a narrower BRCA). The chair of the banking committee said, “It’s time to pass it.” Market forecasts have the probability of passing within the year rising to 34%, with the debate vote ending on Tuesday (tomorrow). Whether it passes or not, “who regulates crypto—SEC or CFTC?” has finally made it onto the full Senate debate. It’s a boost for the compliance narrative around ETH, and for alts it’s a “passport” dividing line.
📍 Institutional money is quietly relocating
Last week, spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million (BlackRock’s ETHA contributed $140 million), with inflows continuing for four straight weeks. By contrast, BTC ETFs saw weekly net outflows. This isn’t bearish crypto—it’s “the big cake is taking a breather, while the small cake bets on regulatory upside.” The trail of money moving into ETH is getting more and more obvious.
📍 The leverage weekend squeeze was just done
CPI night wiped out shorts, the weekend washed out longs. In the last 24 hours, long positions were liquidated for 300 million+.
Now, anyone betting a full 10x position on the FOMC is basically paying tuition for market makers.
📍 Wrap-up
This week’s sequence: 9/15 CLARITY vote → 9/16 FOMC decision + the Warsh press conference.
Hawkish tone + bill gridlock → BTC tests 75k
Looser wording / bill progress → ETH moves first to surge toward 2,600, BTC follows up to 83k
Everything plays ping-pong → grind from 76k to 79k into month-end
Super Week Eve—don’t pretend you’ve figured it out, and don’t catch falling knives. Position size is more valuable than opinions; patience is more valuable than noise.
If CLARITY can’t pass with 60 votes tomorrow, which do you like more to react first—BTC or ETH?
BTC ETH
