After Ethereum (ETH) hit a $2,660 high in eight months, it has been consolidating around the $2,474 area following a pullback, moving near the upper end of a range. With volumes quickly declining on exchanges and the share of staking increasing, the market is considering a renewed attempt at $3,000.
Key point
Ethereum is forming a 'converging triangle' as selling pressure that lowers the recent high and buying pressure that lifts the recent low intersect, and battles are ongoing near the recent rally high.
If the price breaks upward out of this range, analysts say a scenario could reopen in which Ethereum re-enters the $3,000 level.
While holdings on centralized exchanges have decreased to about 14.7 million ETH, roughly 43 million ETH are tied up in staking, meaning around 35% of the total supply is locked away from circulation.
Ethereum is being tightened on the supply side
After Ethereum surged to $2,660, it entered a consolidation phase and found support around an upward-trending line near $2,474. During this process, a clear triangular convergence pattern emerged in which the price gradually became trapped within a narrower range.
The current pattern is widely viewed as similar to the triangular convergence that appeared ahead of the prior 30.91% surge. At the time, after large investors (“whales”) accumulated and more than $300 million worth of Ethereum left exchanges, a short-term rally unfolded.
Subsequently, ETH balances on centralized exchanges fell from a level exceeding 20 million coins to about 14.7 million, meaning that sellable liquidity declined meaningfully right away. In addition, staking has further tightened the circulating supply.
At present, about 43 million ETH are deposited across various staking services, leaving roughly 35% of the total issued supply locked. Spot and futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also incorporating the coins into regulated custody, while the pace of new issuance remains limited.
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ETH momentum faces a test
As of the current period, ETH is trading around the $2,510 level, remaining about 5.6% below the recent high of $2,660. With trading volume decreasing on both the buy and sell sides, the strong momentum that drove the prior rally has not resumed yet. The view is that it is difficult to assume further upside solely due to a lack of supply.
If trading volume and open interest (Open Interest) expand together, it could be interpreted as a sign of new capital inflows. If, alongside that, the price breaks upward out of the current convergence range, there are possibilities that it could reclaim the $2,650–$2,700 area and potentially attempt to return to $3,000 again. Conversely, if a key support level breaks down, scenarios also exist in which a test of the $2,380–$2,400 range becomes inevitable.
The earlier triangular convergence pattern led to a 30.91% rise in just three days after successfully breaking upward while trading volume visibly increased. However, under the current setup, it has not yet been confirmed that participation from aggressive buyers at the same level is occurring. Because of this difference, whether the breakout will happen with this pattern remains unverified.
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