Daily sharing

The big pie pulled back again early this morning, but it hasn’t fallen below 76,000, so this is still in line with the 1h-level rebound mentioned in last night’s article. So far it has rebounded to around 78,000, but the 1h-level rebound hasn’t finished yet; I expect it may move a bit higher.

Tomorrow should see the next 1h-level decline. This 1h-level decline is expected to break below 76,000.

There was a vote with a clear plan around 2–3 a.m. on the 16th, which should bring some short-term volatility. Around 2–3 a.m. on the 17th is the Fed FOMC meeting, and there should also be some short-term volatility. If the big pie’s 4h-level drop can fall below 72,000, then personally I think opportunities would come only after the 19th.

Medium- to short-term trend direction

4h cycle main direction: in the short term, it will most likely have a single 4-hour level decline.

1h cycle direction: it’s currently working through a 1-hour level rebound. After the rebound is done, it will fall again.

BTC short term

For the short term, since market changes quickly, the article can only make predictions about how the market will change at the moment it is published. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes—just use this as a reference.

1H:

1) Currently, the second 1-hour level rebound is underway. This rebound has a chance to reach around 79000.

2) After the 1-hour level rebound is completed, it’s expected that there will be a third 1-hour level decline. That third 1-hour level decline should be able to break 76000. After it breaks, there’s a chance to touch around 73500.

3) If we look at the technical structure, the completion of the third 1-hour level decline could coincide with the monetary policy meeting. Then it’s not ruled out that after the Fed’s FOMC meeting comes out, BTC (the big one/bread) will be affected by the news and move through a fourth 1-hour level rebound, rebounding from around 74000 back to around 78000 to build a 1-hour level consolidation center, and then continue to decline and leave that leg, extending the 4-hour level decline. This is just a guess—watch it as it unfolds in real time.

15M:

1) 15-minute level: because this morning it was slightly punctured again to 76388, it should currently be the first 15-minute pullback within the rebound at the 1-hour level.

2) In the evening, there should be a second 15-minute level pullback. As long as it doesn’t drop below 76700, it is expected to have a third 15-minute level rebound. Watch whether it reaches 79000.

3) The third 15-minute upward move may finish, and then it could start the next 1-hour level decline.

ETH

1) The ETH short-term 1-hour level rebound should not be finished, because the morning pullback time was relatively short. So it’s expected that it will go into a second 15-minute level pullback here.

2) If the second 15-minute level pullback doesn’t drop below 2465, then there should still be a third 15-minute level rebound.

3) Continue to watch the 2550~2600 range.

4) Expect the 1-hour level rebound to not be able to get above 2665. Then it will form a second sell at the 4-hour level downturn, and after that, it will go into the third 1-hour level decline that breaks below 2400.

5) For ETH this week, still watch 2350. If it breaks below that level, you can look for a daily-chart level decline.